Capital Markets and Economics Training Course

Participants can interpret core macroeconomic indicators and identify their limits for decision-making.

• Gross domestic product measured through expenditure, income and production approaches
• Nominal versus real GDP using price deflators and chain-volume measures
• Business-cycle phases identified from output, employment, spending and confidence indicators
• Leading, coincident and lagging indicators used in economic-monitoring dashboards
• Productivity, potential output and output gaps in policy assessment
• Data revisions, seasonal adjustment and base effects when interpreting releases

Participants can assess inflation and labour-market evidence for interest-rate and demand scenarios.

• Consumer price index components, weights and headline-core inflation differences
• Producer prices and import costs as early signals of consumer inflation
• Phillips curve reasoning for inflation, unemployment and wage-pressure assessment
• Labour-force participation, vacancies and earnings data interpreted together
• Real disposable income and consumer confidence in household-demand forecasts
• Inflation expectations measured through surveys, breakevens and indexed bonds

Participants can evaluate central-bank actions and estimate their likely market effects.

• Policy mandates covering price stability, employment, exchange rates and financial stability
• Policy-rate decisions transmitted through bank funding, credit and asset valuations
• Taylor rule inputs: inflation deviation, output gap and neutral rate
• Open-market operations, reserve requirements and standing lending facilities explained
• Quantitative easing and balance-sheet reduction effects on term premiums
• Central-bank statements analysed for guidance, risks and voting signals

Participants can assess fiscal conditions and relate sovereign risk to market pricing.

• Budget balances separated into cyclical, structural and primary components
• Debt-to-GDP dynamics using interest rates, growth and primary balances
• Fiscal multipliers compared across government spending, taxes and transfers
• Sovereign yield spreads linked to creditworthiness, liquidity and political risk
• Debt maturity profiles assessed for refinancing and interest-cost exposure
• Rating-agency methodologies reviewed alongside market-implied sovereign risk

Participants can analyse currency movements using macroeconomic, market and policy evidence.

• Balance of payments accounts: current, capital and financial account flows
• Purchasing power parity applied to long-run exchange-rate comparisons
• Interest-rate parity linked to spot rates, forwards and carry trades
• Managed, fixed and floating exchange-rate regimes compared for policy consequences
• Foreign-exchange intervention, reserves and capital controls assessed for credibility
• Currency risk mapped across imports, exports, debt service and investments

Participants can explain money-market pricing and use short-term rates in funding analysis.

• Treasury bills, repos and commercial paper priced using money-market conventions
• Secured and unsecured benchmark rates compared for funding-risk signals
• Day-count conventions, discount rates and bond-equivalent yields calculated correctly
• Forward rate agreements used to lock future borrowing-rate exposure
• Interbank liquidity conditions interpreted through repo rates and collateral demand
• Money-market curves linked to central-bank policy expectations and credit conditions

Participants can construct yield-curve interpretations and assess government-bond rate exposure.

• Par, spot and forward curves distinguished using zero-coupon bond pricing
• Bootstrapping spot rates from coupon-bearing government bond market prices
• Yield-curve shapes interpreted through growth, inflation and policy expectations
• Term premium separated conceptually from expected future short-term rates
• Government bond auctions assessed using bid-to-cover ratios and tail metrics
• Curve steepening and flattening translated into portfolio and funding implications

Participants can value plain bonds and quantify sensitivity to yield movements.

• Bond cash flows discounted using yield-to-maturity and spot-rate approaches
• Current yield, yield-to-maturity and holding-period return compared carefully
• Macaulay duration and modified duration calculated for price sensitivity
• Convexity used to improve estimates of large yield-change effects
• Credit spreads decomposed into default, liquidity and risk-premium components
• Duration matching applied to assets, liabilities and funding portfolios

Participants can assess equity returns, market drivers and relative performance measures.

• Equity issuance, rights issues and initial public offerings explained
• Price return, total return and dividend yield calculated consistently
• Market capitalisation, free float and index weighting methods compared
• Sector rotation related to growth, inflation, rates and commodity cycles
• Earnings revisions, margin expectations and valuation rerating separated analytically
• Benchmark-relative performance measured using active return and tracking error

Participants can produce equity valuations using cash flows, multiples and capital-cost estimates.

• Free cash flow to firm derived from operating forecasts
• Weighted average cost of capital built from market-value capital weights
• Capital Asset Pricing Model estimated using beta, risk-free rate and premium
• Terminal value calculated using perpetuity-growth and exit-multiple methods
• Comparable-company multiples normalised for growth, margins and capital intensity
• Sensitivity tables show valuation effects of discount-rate and growth assumptions

Participants can explain derivative payoffs and select appropriate hedging approaches for common exposures.

• Forward, futures, swap and option contracts matched to exposure profiles
• Interest-rate swaps convert fixed-rate debt into floating-rate obligations
• Currency forwards hedge contracted foreign-currency receivables and payables
• Option payoffs mapped using strike price, premium and underlying movements
• Basis risk identified when hedge instruments differ from underlying exposures
• Value at Risk interpreted alongside stress testing and scenario analysis

Participants can evaluate portfolio risk-return trade-offs and construct allocation rationale.

• Expected return estimated from scenario probabilities and weighted outcomes
• Variance, standard deviation and covariance calculated for investment returns
• Correlation effects assessed when combining equities, bonds, cash and alternatives
• Efficient frontier principles applied to portfolio risk-return choices
• Capital market line distinguished from security market line interpretations
• Strategic and tactical asset allocation linked to investment objectives

Participants can specify, interpret and challenge basic regression models using economic and market data.

• Regression model structure: dependent variable, predictors, coefficients and residuals
• Ordinary least squares assumptions checked before relying on estimates
• Coefficient signs, magnitudes and confidence intervals interpreted for decisions
• R-squared and adjusted R-squared assessed without overstating explanatory power
• Multicollinearity, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity identified from diagnostic evidence
• Correlation distinguished from causation using economic reasoning and research design

Participants can develop transparent economic and market scenarios for financial planning decisions.

• Baseline, upside and downside scenarios built from explicit economic assumptions
• Consensus forecasts compared with internal views and market-implied expectations
• Time-series trends examined using moving averages and exponential smoothing
• Forecast errors measured using mean absolute percentage error metrics
• Scenario transmission mapped from macro variables to revenues, costs and valuations
• Assumption registers document data sources, judgement calls and update triggers

Participants can build, review and present a complete capital-markets briefing with economic outlook, valuation, risk assessment and recommendations.

• Define decision question, audience, time horizon and material financial exposures
• Select economic indicators, market data and issuer information for evidence
• Build baseline and alternative scenarios with quantified market assumptions
• Prepare yield-curve, currency, equity and credit-risk assessments for selected case
• Develop valuation outputs using discounted cash flow and market multiples
• Review assumptions, limitations, sensitivities and governance requirements before presentation