Project Appraisal and Risk Management Training Course

Participants can define a project scope and assumptions suitable for appraisal.

• Project charter defines objectives, scope boundaries, constraints and success criteria
• Work breakdown structure identifies deliverables, work packages and control accounts
• Assumptions log records sources, confidence levels, owners and review dates
• Dependencies mapped between approvals, suppliers, technology, funding and operations
• Stakeholder analysis identifies decision makers, beneficiaries, opponents and delivery partners
• Requirements prioritised using MoSCoW categories and acceptance criteria

Participants can establish credible demand, baseline and benefit assumptions.

• Baseline measures establish current costs, service levels and performance gaps
• Demand forecasting uses historical trends, drivers, segmentation and stated assumptions
• Benefits map connects project deliverables with measurable operational and financial outcomes
• SMART benefit measures specify baselines, targets, owners and measurement periods
• Avoided costs distinguished from cashable savings, efficiencies and revenue benefits
• Optimism bias considered when estimating demand, benefits and implementation performance

Participants can develop cost estimates with documented bases and uncertainty ranges.

• Bottom-up estimating aggregates work-package labour, materials, equipment and subcontract costs
• Analogous estimates use comparable projects with documented adjustment factors
• Three-point estimates calculate expected cost from optimistic, likely and pessimistic values
• Capital expenditure separated from operating expenditure, renewal costs and residual values
• Cost baseline phases expenditure against schedule milestones and procurement commitments
• Estimating basis records quantities, rates, exclusions, escalation and source evidence

Participants can build a time-phased project cash-flow model from appraisal assumptions.

• Cash-flow timing reflects procurement, construction, commissioning and benefit realisation
• Model inputs separate volume, price, inflation, tax and timing assumptions
• Annual cash flows include investment costs, operating costs and benefits
• Discounted cash flows calculate present values using stated discount rates
• Working capital requirements included where inventory, receivables or payment terms matter
• Model checks reconcile totals, formulas, units, signs and time periods

Participants can calculate and interpret core investment appraisal measures.

• Net present value compares discounted benefits against discounted project costs
• Internal rate of return tested against hurdle rates and reinvestment assumptions
• Payback period measures time required to recover initial investment
• Benefit-cost ratio compares discounted benefits with discounted cost streams
• Accounting rate of return interpreted alongside cash-based valuation measures
• Conflicting appraisal results resolved through stated decision rules and context

Participants can assess non-financial project effects using structured appraisal criteria.

• Economic appraisal distinguishes market prices from economic costs and benefits
• Social value criteria assess access, inclusion, employment and community outcomes
• Environmental impacts screened for emissions, waste, land use and resilience
• Multi-criteria analysis scores options against weighted qualitative and quantitative criteria
• Distributional effects identify groups gaining, losing or carrying disproportionate costs
• Non-monetised impacts documented with evidence, uncertainty and decision relevance

Participants can test which assumptions most affect project viability.

• One-way sensitivity analysis tests individual variables against base-case valuation
• Tornado diagrams rank assumptions by their effect on NPV
• Scenario analysis combines coherent changes in demand, costs and schedule
• Break-even analysis identifies values required to meet investment thresholds
• Switching values show when an assumption changes the approval decision
• Management responses linked to adverse scenarios, triggers and contingency actions

Participants can prepare an evidence-based business case for governance review.

• Five Case Model structures strategic, economic, commercial, financial and management cases
• Executive summaries state recommendation, value case, risks and approval sought
• Option comparison tables present costs, benefits, risks and strategic fit
• Affordability assessment tests funding sources, budget timing and cash constraints
• Stage-gate governance defines approval authority, evidence thresholds and escalation routes
• Decision logs record recommendations, conditions, dissenting views and approved actions

Participants can establish a project risk management approach aligned with ISO 31000.

• ISO 31000 principles guide risk governance, integration and continual improvement
• Risk appetite defines acceptable exposure, thresholds and escalation requirements
• Project context considers strategic, commercial, technical and external uncertainty
• Risk categories organise threats and opportunities across project life cycles
• Risk management plan defines methods, roles, reporting cadence and records
• Interfaces mapped between project risks, programme risks and enterprise risk registers

Participants can identify project threats and opportunities using multiple evidence sources.

• Risk breakdown structure categorises scope, schedule, cost, quality and stakeholder risks
• PESTLE analysis identifies political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental risks
• Cause-event-effect statements distinguish risk sources, events and consequences
• Assumption analysis converts uncertain planning assumptions into testable risk statements
• Prompt lists identify procurement, contract, safety, regulatory and operational risks
• Lessons learned databases provide evidence from comparable project failures and successes

Participants can assess and prioritise risks using consistent qualitative criteria.

• Probability-impact matrix scores risks using defined scales and calibration guidance
• Inherent risk assessed before planned controls, treatments and contingency measures
• Residual risk assessed after treatment actions and control effectiveness
• Risk velocity considers how quickly a risk can affect objectives
• Proximity ratings identify risks requiring action within defined planning horizons
• Risk prioritisation combines exposure, urgency, ownership and decision requirements

Participants can select proportionate treatments and assign accountable risk actions.

• Threat responses include avoid, reduce, transfer, accept and escalate strategies
• Opportunity responses include exploit, enhance, share, accept and escalate strategies
• Treatment plans specify actions, owners, deadlines, costs and effectiveness measures
• Risk owners accept accountability for monitoring exposure and treatment delivery
• Contingency plans define triggers, decision authority, actions and resource requirements
• Contract allocation assigns risks to parties able to manage them

Participants can estimate contingency requirements from cost and schedule uncertainty.

• Expected monetary value combines risk probability with estimated financial impact
• Decision trees compare contingent choices, probabilities, costs and expected values
• Monte Carlo simulation models combined uncertainty across cost and schedule variables
• Probability distributions selected using evidence, expert judgement and data quality
• P-values express confidence levels for cost and schedule contingency estimates
• Quantitative outputs translated into reserves, tolerances and management decisions

Participants can analyse schedule uncertainty and plan responses to critical delays.

• Critical path method identifies activities controlling planned project completion dates
• Predecessor relationships model finish-to-start, start-to-start and finish-to-finish logic
• Schedule risk analysis tests duration uncertainty, dependencies and milestone confidence
• Critical chain buffers protect constrained resources and uncertain task durations
• Delay analysis distinguishes excusable, compensable and concurrent delay events
• Recovery plans sequence acceleration, resequencing, resource changes and scope decisions

Participants can assess commercial risk and define appropriate contractual controls.

• Make-or-buy analysis compares capability, cost, control and supplier risk
• Procurement strategy aligns market conditions, package scope and competition approach
• Contract types allocate price, performance and change risk differently
• Supplier due diligence examines financial capacity, capability, references and compliance
• Payment milestones connect deliverables, acceptance criteria and cash-flow protection
• Change control manages variations, claims, approvals and contractual records

Participants can operate risk reviews and report decision-relevant risk information.

• Risk register fields capture description, causes, impacts, scores and ownership
• Key risk indicators provide early warning through measurable exposure signals
• Risk review cadence aligns with governance meetings, milestones and delivery cycles
• Heat maps communicate exposure while retaining underlying scoring rationale
• Escalation thresholds trigger sponsor decisions, contingency release and external reporting
• Closed risks retain treatment evidence, lessons learned and residual exposure records

Participants can connect appraisal assumptions, delivery risks and assurance evidence.

• Risk-adjusted cash flows reflect uncertainty in benefits, costs and timing
• Assumptions log reconciled with risk register entries and treatment actions
• Contingency reserves distinguished from management reserves and budget allowances
• Benefits realisation plan assigns measures, owners, review dates and interventions
• Independent assurance tests appraisal quality, control design and evidence sufficiency
• Post-implementation reviews compare actual results against approved business case forecasts

Participants can present appraisal findings and respond to informed challenge.

• Decision papers foreground recommendation, required approval and consequences of delay
• Charts communicate cash flows, sensitivities, risk exposure and option comparisons
• Assumption narratives explain evidence sources, confidence and validation actions
• Red-team review challenges optimism, omissions, bias and unsupported conclusions
• Governance questions address affordability, deliverability, ownership and residual risk
• Presentation structure separates facts, analysis, judgement and requested decisions

Participants can build, review and present a complete project appraisal and risk management pack for approval.

• Project case defines strategic need, options, scope, benefits and constraints
• Cash-flow model calculates valuation metrics under documented base-case assumptions
• Sensitivity and scenario analysis tests viability against adverse project conditions
• Risk register identifies priority exposures, owners, treatments and contingency triggers
• Business case synthesises financial, commercial, management and assurance evidence
• Decision-panel presentation defends recommendation, responds to challenge and records conditions