Scenario Planning and Strategic Foresight Training Course

Duration 10 days 16 modules · 65 contact hours
Level Advanced Certificate on completion
Who attends Strategy Directors, Business Unit Leaders and others
Fee from USD 2,200 KSh 190,000 for Kenyan organisations
Where 52 cities + online See dates by city
Next start 9 Nov 2026 Course code SD-SP-053

Before you join: Participants should have several years of experience in strategy, planning, risk, policy, transformation, intelligence or senior operational management.

Dates & prices

Two start dates a month in every city, and live online on weekdays or weekends. Fees are per participant; classroom fees include tuition, materials, lunch and refreshments, and the certificate.

Suggest a date or city

Showing the next six months. Later dates, other cities and private deliveries for your team are available on request.

Course overview

Senior teams often make long-term commitments while treating uncertainty as a forecasting problem. Interest rates, regulation, technology, geopolitics, climate exposure, customer behaviour and supply conditions can combine in ways that invalidate a single planning assumption. Scenario planning gives leaders a disciplined way to examine several plausible futures, test current strategy against them and make choices that remain credible under different conditions.

This advanced course teaches participants to build decision-focused scenarios using established strategic foresight methods. Participants define focal questions, identify driving forces, assess critical uncertainties, develop scenario logics and write evidence-based scenario narratives. They use horizon scanning, PESTLE, systems mapping, cross-impact analysis, futures wheels, wind-tunnelling and signpost monitoring to test strategies, investment cases, operating models and public-policy options. The course also addresses how to engage executives, challenge assumptions constructively and convert scenario work into governance actions.

Instruction combines short expert briefings with cases drawn from banking, public administration, infrastructure, energy, healthcare, humanitarian operations and multinational business. Participants work throughout the course on a live strategic issue from their own organisation or a realistic case. They leave with a completed scenario planning pack: a focal question, evidence base, uncertainty matrix, scenario set, strategic stress tests, early-warning indicators and an implementation roadmap for leadership review.

The course suits experienced managers, planners, policy professionals and transformation leaders whose decisions have material consequences beyond the annual planning cycle. It is particularly valuable where conventional forecasting is proving insufficient, major investments are under consideration, or leaders need a shared basis for discussing uncertainty without treating any single future as certain.

What you will be able to do

  • Frame a decision-focused scenario question with clear scope, horizon and ownership
  • Conduct horizon scanning using PESTLE, weak-signal analysis and source evaluation
  • Map system drivers and feedback loops using causal loop diagrams
  • Prioritise critical uncertainties through impact-uncertainty matrices and cross-impact analysis
  • Construct internally consistent scenario logics and evidence-based scenario narratives
  • Stress-test strategies, investments and operating assumptions through scenario wind-tunnelling
  • Design early-warning indicators and signpost monitoring for alternative future conditions
  • Present a complete scenario planning pack for executive decision-making

Benefits of attending

For you

  • Build credible futures analyses for senior leadership discussions
  • Challenge planning assumptions without relying on personal opinion
  • Test career-critical recommendations against multiple plausible futures
  • Facilitate structured uncertainty discussions across competing functions
  • Produce an executive-ready scenario planning pack for a live issue

For your organisation

  • Reduces dependence on single-point forecasts for major strategic commitments
  • Improves investment decisions under regulatory, market and operational uncertainty
  • Identifies leading indicators before risks become operational crises
  • Creates shared assumptions across strategy, risk, finance and operations teams
  • Produces repeatable scenario methods for planning and governance cycles

Course modules

16 modules over 10 days

Participants can distinguish scenario planning from forecasting and define its decision-making purpose.

  • Distinguishing forecasts, scenarios, contingency plans and strategic choices
  • Four scenario purposes: sensing, testing, shaping and preparedness
  • Shell-style scenario logic versus single-point planning assumptions cycles
  • Time horizons matched to asset lives, mandates and investment cycles
  • Focal questions framed with decision owner, scope and time boundary
  • Quality criteria: plausible, challenging, relevant and internally consistent narratives

Participants can frame a scenario mandate that addresses a material strategic decision.

  • Decision inventory covering investments, policy choices and operating commitments
  • Strategic focal questions separated from research questions and operational problems
  • Scope boundaries defined by geography, stakeholders, value chain and mandate
  • Horizon selection using decision lead times and consequence duration
  • Stakeholder mapping identifies scenario sponsors, users, challengers and contributors
  • Success measures specify decisions improved by scenario planning outputs

Participants can gather and assess evidence on emerging changes relevant to their focal question.

  • PESTLE scanning identifies political, economic, social, technological and legal signals
  • Weak signals distinguished from trends, fads, shocks and established drivers
  • Source triangulation tests claims using data, experts and institutional publications
  • Signal cards record evidence, relevance, direction, timing and confidence
  • Scanning biases addressed through diverse sources and dissenting interpretations
  • Emerging issues clustered around markets, institutions, resources and behaviours

Participants can model the system relationships that shape future strategic conditions.

  • System boundaries separate focal dynamics from peripheral contextual influences
  • Causal loop diagrams reveal reinforcing and balancing feedback mechanisms
  • Stock-and-flow thinking distinguishes accumulations from immediate activity measures
  • Feedback delays expose policy lags and unintended strategic consequences
  • Actor maps connect power, incentives, dependencies and decision rights
  • System archetypes diagnose escalation, shifting burdens and success-to-success patterns

Participants can identify and prioritise forces that could materially change strategic choices.

  • Driving forces categorised as predetermined elements, trends and critical uncertainties
  • Impact-uncertainty matrices rank forces by strategic consequence and unpredictability
  • Cross-impact analysis tests dependencies among political, market and technological forces
  • Assumption audits expose beliefs treated as facts within planning documents
  • Critical uncertainty statements specify alternative directions rather than vague risks
  • Priority drivers linked directly to the focal decision and planning horizon

Participants can construct a defensible scenario framework from two or more critical uncertainties.

  • Two-axis scenario matrices built from independent high-impact uncertainties
  • Morphological analysis combines multiple uncertainty states without false simplicity
  • Scenario logics test distinct causal pathways rather than superficial labels
  • Internal consistency checks identify contradictory assumptions and impossible combinations
  • Baseline conditions separated from differentiating features across scenario worlds
  • Scenario names communicate memorable logic without implying preferred outcomes

Participants can write concise, evidence-based narratives that make future conditions usable for decisions.

  • Narrative structure links drivers, events, actors, outcomes and strategic implications
  • Chronologies show how early conditions develop into consequential future states
  • Quantitative ranges support plausibility without claiming forecast precision
  • Stakeholder perspectives reveal winners, losers, coalitions and resistance points
  • Headline writing captures each scenario's central tension and operating reality
  • Narrative evidence distinguishes sourced facts from reasoned analytical judgements

Participants can enrich scenario work using additional structured foresight techniques.

  • Futures wheels trace first-order, second-order and third-order consequences
  • Causal Layered Analysis separates litany, systems, worldview and myth
  • Three Horizons maps declining systems, transition innovations and emerging models
  • Backcasting identifies milestones from a desired future to present actions
  • Wild-card analysis examines low-probability disruptions with extreme consequences
  • Delphi panels structure expert judgement where evidence remains incomplete

Participants can test strategic choices against the demands of each scenario.

  • Wind-tunnelling tests strategic initiatives against each scenario's operating conditions
  • Strategic options assessed for resilience, upside, reversibility and timing
  • No-regrets actions identified where benefits persist across multiple scenarios
  • Contingent moves linked to trigger conditions and pre-agreed decision rights
  • Portfolio balancing compares core commitments, options and hedging investments
  • Failure-mode analysis exposes assumptions that make strategies scenario-sensitive

Participants can apply scenarios to investment cases, policy options and operating model choices.

  • Capital investment cases tested against demand, cost and financing scenarios
  • Policy stress tests examine distributional effects, compliance and political feasibility
  • Operating model choices assessed for capacity, skills and supplier dependencies
  • Real-options logic values staged commitments, deferral and expansion rights
  • Decision trees clarify trigger points under alternative future conditions
  • Sensitivity analysis distinguishes critical assumptions from immaterial model variations

Participants can design monitoring arrangements that indicate which scenario dynamics are emerging.

  • Scenario signposts translate future conditions into observable present indicators
  • Leading indicators distinguished from lagging metrics and ambiguous measures
  • Indicator thresholds define escalation points and decision review triggers
  • Signal dashboards combine quantitative data, expert observation and narrative evidence
  • Monitoring cadence matched to volatility, decision speed and data availability
  • Ownership assignments connect signpost review with existing governance forums

Participants can embed scenario outputs within established planning, risk and governance processes.

  • Annual planning links scenario assumptions to budgets, targets and resource allocations
  • Risk registers distinguish known exposures from deep uncertainty and strategic surprises
  • Board papers present scenario implications, choices, triggers and recommended actions
  • Investment governance incorporates scenario tests before approval-stage commitments
  • Strategy reviews refresh scenarios when material assumptions or signals change
  • Decision rights clarify who monitors, interprets and acts on signposts

Participants can facilitate constructive scenario discussions and communicate findings to senior audiences.

  • Executive briefings lead with decision implications rather than methodological detail
  • Storyboards combine scenario narratives, data points, choices and signposts
  • Facilitation protocols surface disagreement without forcing premature consensus
  • Red-team questioning challenges evidence, causality and hidden strategic assumptions
  • Cognitive biases addressed through premortems, outside views and structured dissent
  • Leadership discussions conclude with decisions, owners, triggers and review dates

Participants can adapt scenario methods to sector-specific strategic decisions and constraints.

  • Banking scenarios examine credit cycles, regulation, payments and liquidity pressures
  • Public-sector scenarios test service demand, fiscal capacity and electoral change
  • Infrastructure scenarios assess climate exposure, permitting and long-life asset demand
  • Healthcare scenarios explore workforce shortages, funding models and care delivery
  • Humanitarian scenarios consider displacement, access constraints and donor funding volatility
  • Multinational scenarios assess trade barriers, localisation and geopolitical fragmentation

Participants can assemble a decision-ready scenario pack from their analyses and strategic tests.

  • Scenario pack structure sequences focal question, evidence, scenarios and choices
  • Evidence appendices document sources, confidence ratings and contested interpretations
  • Scenario comparison tables highlight differences affecting strategic commitments
  • Strategic response maps connect actions, triggers, owners and resource implications
  • Executive summaries state decisions required and consequences of inaction
  • Peer review checks clarity, plausibility, relevance and analytical traceability

Participants can build, review and present a complete scenario planning pack for a live strategic decision.

  • Focal question, scope, horizon and decision owner confirmed
  • Scanning evidence synthesised into driving forces and critical uncertainties
  • Scenario logics developed into internally consistent future narratives
  • Strategic options wind-tunnelled against each completed scenario set
  • Signposts, thresholds, governance owners and review cadence defined
  • Executive presentation communicates choices, trade-offs and recommended next actions

Exercises and examples are adapted to each cohort's sectors and roles.

What you take back to work

  1. Decision-focused scenario planning charter
  2. Horizon scanning and signal card template
  3. Critical uncertainty and cross-impact matrix
  4. Scenario narrative and comparison pack
  5. Strategic wind-tunnelling assessment template
  6. Early-warning signpost monitoring plan

Who should attend

  • Strategy Directors — need to test enterprise strategy against material uncertainty
  • Business Unit Leaders — need credible choices for investments and market commitments
  • Public Policy Managers — need to prepare policies for alternative social and economic conditions
  • Risk and Resilience Leaders — need forward-looking indicators beyond conventional risk registers
  • Transformation Directors — need to align change portfolios with plausible future conditions
  • Planning and Intelligence Managers — need a repeatable foresight process for leadership teams

Skills and tools covered

Scenario architectureHorizon scanningSystems mappingStrategic stress testingEarly-warning designExecutive facilitation

Tools and standards

PESTLE analysis, Causal Loop Diagrams, Causal Layered Analysis, Three Horizons

How the course runs

Training methodology

The course uses short instructor briefings to introduce each method, followed by facilitated case analysis, group exercises and structured simulations. Participants apply tools to a live organisational issue or a realistic sector case, building their scenario pack in stages. Teams compare evidence, test causal assumptions, develop alternative futures and conduct strategic wind-tunnelling. Instructor feedback focuses on decision relevance, internal consistency, evidence quality and executive communication. Application planning connects scenario outputs to existing strategy, risk, investment and performance-management processes.

Requirements and prerequisites

Participants should have several years of experience in strategy, planning, risk, policy, transformation, intelligence or senior operational management. They should be comfortable discussing organisational priorities, interpreting qualitative and quantitative evidence, and contributing to group analysis. Familiarity with annual planning, risk management or business cases is helpful. No prior scenario planning qualification, forecasting specialism, statistics training or futures studies background is required. Participants should bring a current strategic issue, investment decision or policy question where uncertainty materially affects the available choices.

A typical training day

08:30 – 10:30First session
10:30 – 10:45Refreshment break
10:45 – 12:30Second session
12:30 – 13:30Lunch and networking
13:30 – 15:00Third session
15:00 – 15:15Refreshment break
15:15 – 16:30Workshop and daily review

Live online deliveries follow the same structure in East Africa Time, with shorter screen blocks and longer breaks.

What the fee includes

  • Instruction by a practitioner facilitator
  • Full course workbook and materials
  • Exercise files, templates and case studies
  • Refreshments and lunch on classroom deliveries
  • Certificate of completion
  • Post-course application plan

Frequently asked questions

Participants should have experience contributing to strategy, planning, risk, policy, transformation or senior operational decisions. Prior scenario planning study is not required, but participants should be able to discuss a real strategic issue and interpret evidence.

Bring a current strategic question, major investment, policy issue or operating challenge with uncertainty beyond the annual planning cycle. Relevant strategy papers, risk registers, market analyses or business cases are useful, subject to your organisation's confidentiality rules.

The course is designed for experienced managers and specialists who influence significant decisions. It is especially relevant for strategy, risk, intelligence, policy, transformation, investment and resilience roles.

Risk management usually focuses on identifiable exposures, controls and mitigation actions, while strategic planning commonly develops a preferred future and resource plan. This course examines several plausible future conditions and tests whether strategic choices remain credible across them.

Participants can use the scenario pack to support leadership workshops, board discussions, investment reviews, policy design and annual planning. The signpost plan also provides a practical basis for monitoring assumptions after the course.

The first week establishes the focal question, evidence base, system drivers and scenario framework while participants begin work on their own issue. The second week develops narratives, tests strategies, designs signposts, integrates governance and completes the capstone presentation; each training day runs from 08:30 to 16:30 with about 6.5 contact hours.

Questions about this course?

Ask about dates, fees, group bookings or running it for your team. Our training team replies by email.

Ask on WhatsApp info@skillsetdevelopment.com

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