Theory of Change Development Training Course

Duration 5 days 10 modules · 33 contact hours
Level Intermediate Certificate on completion
Who attends Monitoring and Evaluation Managers, Programme Managers and others
Fee from USD 1,100 KSh 95,000 for Kenyan organisations
Where 52 cities + online See dates by city
Next start 7 Nov 2026 Course code SD-ME-096

Before you join: Participants should have experience working with development, humanitarian, public-sector or social-impact programmes, ideally in design, implementation, monitoring, evaluation or funding roles.

Dates & prices

Two start dates a month in every city, and live online on weekdays or weekends. Fees are per participant; classroom fees include tuition, materials, lunch and refreshments, and the certificate.

Suggest a date or city

Showing the next six months. Later dates, other cities and private deliveries for your team are available on request.

Course overview

Development and humanitarian programmes are frequently expected to explain how funded activities will contribute to durable change, yet proposals and programme documents often present linear results chains with weak causal reasoning. A credible theory of change must identify the people and institutions expected to change, test the assumptions behind each pathway, account for power and context, and specify what evidence will show whether progress is occurring. Without this discipline, teams risk collecting irrelevant data, overstating contribution and making decisions on untested beliefs.

This course teaches participants to develop, document and review practical theories of change for programmes, projects and portfolios. Participants work from a defined problem, stakeholder group and intended impact to construct causal pathways, outcomes, assumptions, risks and indicators. The course covers problem-tree analysis, stakeholder mapping, political economy analysis, backward mapping, results chains, outcome mapping, indicator reference sheets, mixed-methods monitoring and contribution analysis. Participants learn to connect a theory of change to proposal design, work planning, monitoring frameworks, evaluation questions and adaptive management decisions.

Teaching combines short instructor briefings with facilitated case analysis, group drafting, peer review and simulations based on development and humanitarian scenarios. Participants apply each method to a programme relevant to their work, such as maternal health access, livelihoods recovery, social protection, education quality or local governance. They leave with a structured draft theory of change package: a causal pathway diagram, narrative, assumptions table, indicator outline and implementation plan for consultation and revision.

The course suits professionals who design, manage, monitor, evaluate or fund programmes and need a disciplined basis for explaining change and judging contribution.

What you will be able to do

  • Construct a theory of change using backward mapping and causal pathway analysis
  • Diagnose programme problems through problem-tree, stakeholder and political economy analysis
  • Formulate impact statements, outcomes and results chains with clear causal logic
  • Test assumptions, risks and alternative pathways using evidence and scenario planning
  • Develop indicator reference sheets linked to outcomes, assumptions and unintended effects
  • Design mixed-methods monitoring plans that generate evidence for adaptive decisions
  • Assess theory quality using OECD DAC criteria, contribution analysis and peer review
  • Produce a stakeholder-ready theory of change narrative, diagram and action plan

Benefits of attending

For you

  • Write credible causal explanations for programme proposals and review meetings
  • Challenge weak assumptions before they become delivery or evaluation problems
  • Create indicators that test change pathways rather than merely count activities
  • Facilitate structured discussions between technical teams, managers and stakeholders
  • Present defensible contribution claims to donors, boards and evaluation teams

For your organisation

  • Improves consistency between programme design, monitoring plans and evaluation questions
  • Reduces investment in activities with poorly evidenced pathways to change
  • Strengthens proposal quality through explicit assumptions, risks and stakeholder analysis
  • Provides management teams with evidence triggers for adapting implementation decisions
  • Produces clearer accountability narratives for donors, partners and affected communities

Course modules

10 modules over 5 days

Participants can distinguish a theory of change from a results framework and define its core elements.

  • Distinguishing activities, outputs, outcomes and impacts within results chains
  • Tracing how services, behaviours and institutions contribute to intended change
  • Separating project control from assumptions, risks and external influences
  • Using OECD DAC criteria to test relevance and coherence
  • Identifying primary stakeholders, duty bearers and groups facing exclusion
  • Framing evaluable change questions before selecting interventions and indicators

Participants can analyse the conditions, actors and power relations that shape a programme problem.

  • Problem-tree analysis links observed conditions to immediate and structural causes
  • Stakeholder mapping plots influence, interest, incentives and affected populations
  • Political economy analysis identifies formal rules, informal norms and power
  • Gender analysis examines roles, access, control and decision-making
  • Conflict sensitivity identifies dividers, connectors and unintended harm pathways
  • Evidence review distinguishes local data, research findings and practitioner knowledge

Participants can construct logically connected pathways from intended impact to programme interventions.

  • Writing an impact statement that specifies population, condition and timeframe
  • Outcome mapping defines behavioural changes among boundary partners
  • Backward mapping connects long-term change to preconditions and interventions
  • Results chains show causal sequence from inputs through impact
  • Selecting an appropriate change pathway for service delivery programmes
  • Testing vertical logic for sufficiency, necessity and plausible contribution

Participants can identify and test the assumptions and risks that affect causal claims.

  • Assumption surfacing separates stated beliefs from untested causal claims
  • Assumption tables record rationale, evidence, uncertainty and monitoring signals
  • Applying force-field analysis to drivers and barriers affecting change
  • Risk registers distinguish programme risks from theory-of-change assumptions
  • Scenario planning considers disruption, adaptation and alternative pathways
  • Articulating negative outcomes, trade-offs and safeguarding concerns
  • Testing causal links against evidence quality and contextual plausibility

Participants can select measures that track outcomes, assumptions and unintended effects.

  • Indicator reference sheets define measures, disaggregation, source and frequency
  • Choosing indicators for outputs, outcomes, assumptions and unintended effects
  • SMART criteria test indicator wording, feasibility and decision usefulness
  • Disaggregation plans cover sex, age, disability, location and other factors
  • Baselines, targets and milestones align with change pathway timing
  • Proxy indicators address constructs that cannot be directly observed

Participants can design proportionate data collection approaches for testing a theory of change.

  • Data collection plans match questions with methods, sources and timing
  • Mixed-methods designs combine monitoring data, interviews and observation
  • Sampling approaches distinguish purposive, random and census-based selections
  • Data quality assessments examine validity, reliability, precision, integrity and timeliness
  • Consent, confidentiality and do-no-harm guide data collection decisions
  • Feedback mechanisms enable affected people to challenge findings and assumptions

Participants can communicate a theory of change clearly through diagrams, narratives and supporting records.

  • Choosing narrative, diagrammatic and matrix formats for different audiences
  • Layered diagrams distinguish intervention components from external change processes
  • Visual conventions make causal arrows, feedback loops and assumptions legible
  • Developing concise theory narratives alongside graphical causal pathways
  • Document control records versions, evidence sources and approval decisions
  • Facilitating stakeholder validation without losing analytical discipline and clarity

Participants can review theory quality and derive credible evaluation questions from causal pathways.

  • Quality standards assess clarity, plausibility, testability, participation and use
  • OECD DAC criteria inform evaluative questions derived from change pathways
  • Contribution analysis tests whether evidence supports claimed causal influence
  • Process tracing examines alternative explanations for observed outcomes
  • Rubrics score theory quality against agreed review criteria
  • Peer review identifies ambiguous links, missing actors and weak evidence

Participants can use monitoring evidence to revise pathways, activities and management decisions.

  • Review cycles compare monitoring evidence against assumptions and expected outcomes
  • Decision logs record changes to activities, pathways, indicators and rationale
  • Adaptive management triggers specify thresholds, authority and response actions
  • Learning agendas prioritise uncertainties requiring research, reflection or testing
  • Portfolio reviews identify duplication, gaps and interaction among interventions
  • Reporting distinguishes implementation progress, outcome signals and contribution claims

Participants can plan a structured process for developing, validating and using a theory of change.

  • Scoping a theory-of-change process around decisions, users and deadlines
  • Sequencing stakeholder workshops, evidence review, drafting and validation
  • Terms of reference specify roles, governance, outputs and quality checks
  • Resource plans assign facilitation, analysis, data collection and review time
  • Application plans identify first actions, sponsors and decision points
  • Communicating the theory to donors, delivery teams and community representatives

Exercises and examples are adapted to each cohort's sectors and roles.

What you take back to work

  1. Theory of change diagram template
  2. Causal pathway narrative template
  3. Assumptions and risks table
  4. Indicator reference sheet
  5. Theory quality review rubric
  6. Theory development action plan

Who should attend

  • Monitoring and Evaluation Managers — need defensible causal models for monitoring and evaluation design
  • Programme Managers — need to connect delivery decisions with intended outcomes
  • Project Design Specialists — need stronger proposals, results frameworks and intervention logic
  • Technical Advisers — need to test sector assumptions before recommending programme approaches
  • Donor Programme Officers — need to assess whether grantee change claims are plausible
  • Evaluation Consultants — need theories of change that frame evaluation questions and contribution claims

Skills and tools covered

Causal pathway designAssumption testingStakeholder analysisIndicator developmentContribution analysisAdaptive management

Tools and standards

Theory of Change, Logical Framework Approach, OECD DAC Evaluation Criteria, Contribution Analysis

How the course runs

Training methodology

The course uses short briefings to introduce each method, followed by case work, group exercises, structured drafting and peer review. Participants analyse realistic programme situations, including service delivery, livelihoods, protection and governance cases. Simulations test how assumptions can fail when context, incentives or stakeholder behaviour changes. Instructor feedback focuses on causal logic, evidence quality and usability. Application planning helps each participant define how they will consult stakeholders, refine their theory of change and connect it to monitoring and management processes.

Requirements and prerequisites

Participants should have experience working with development, humanitarian, public-sector or social-impact programmes, ideally in design, implementation, monitoring, evaluation or funding roles. They should understand basic project terms such as activities, outputs, outcomes, indicators and stakeholders. Familiarity with a logframe or results framework is useful but not essential. No prior training in theory of change, statistics, evaluation design or specialist software is required. Participants should bring a current or recent programme example they can use as a reference during course discussions.

A typical training day

08:30 – 10:30First session
10:30 – 10:45Refreshment break
10:45 – 12:30Second session
12:30 – 13:30Lunch and networking
13:30 – 15:00Third session
15:00 – 15:15Refreshment break
15:15 – 16:30Workshop and daily review

Live online deliveries follow the same structure in East Africa Time, with shorter screen blocks and longer breaks.

What the fee includes

  • Instruction by a practitioner facilitator
  • Full course workbook and materials
  • Exercise files, templates and case studies
  • Refreshments and lunch on classroom deliveries
  • Certificate of completion
  • Post-course application plan

Frequently asked questions

Participants should understand basic project or programme terms such as activities, outputs, outcomes and indicators. Previous experience with a logframe is helpful, but no prior theory of change or evaluation training is required.

Bring a current or recent programme, project concept note, results framework or monitoring plan if available. Participants can also work from the course cases if they cannot share programme documents.

It is designed for programme, M&E, technical, design, evaluation and donor staff working in development, humanitarian, public-sector or social-impact settings. It is most useful for professionals who must explain why an intervention should produce stated outcomes.

Logframe training focuses on structuring objectives, indicators, assumptions and reporting requirements. This course concentrates on the causal reasoning behind those elements, including stakeholders, context, evidence, alternative explanations and change pathways.

Participants can use the templates to review an existing programme theory, strengthen a proposal or prepare a stakeholder consultation. The resulting pathway, assumptions table and indicator outline can inform work plans, monitoring tools and evaluation terms of reference.

Each day runs from 08:30 to 16:30 and provides about 6.5 contact hours. The five days progress from context and causal analysis through indicators, evidence, quality assurance, adaptive management and application planning.

Questions about this course?

Ask about dates, fees, group bookings or running it for your team. Our training team replies by email.

Ask on WhatsApp info@skillsetdevelopment.com

Related courses in Monitoring & Evaluation