Economic Recovery Planning Training Course

Participants can interpret core indicators to establish the scale and pattern of economic disruption.

• GDP expenditure components reveal consumption, investment, trade and government-demand changes
• National accounts distinguish nominal growth, real growth and price effects
• Labour-force indicators measure unemployment, inactivity, hours worked and informality
• Business demography tracks closures, start-ups, insolvencies and survival rates
• Poverty and inequality measures identify households facing prolonged income losses
• High-frequency indicators supplement official statistics during rapidly changing conditions

Participants can assemble a credible evidence base and identify material data limitations.

• Data inventory records sources, frequency, definitions, ownership and publication lags
• Triangulation compares administrative records, surveys, market data and satellite proxies
• Seasonal adjustment separates recurring patterns from genuine economic recovery movements
• Base effects identified before interpreting unusually high quarterly growth rates
• Disaggregation exposes recovery differences by region, gender, age and firm size
• Evidence gaps prioritised using decision materiality and data collection feasibility

Participants can prepare a baseline macroeconomic outlook for recovery planning decisions.

• Baseline forecast links output, inflation, employment, imports and fiscal revenues
• Potential output estimates separate cyclical weakness from structural productive-capacity losses
• Output gap analysis informs demand stimulus and inflation-risk assessments
• Assumption registers document commodity prices, exchange rates, interest rates and demand
• Forecast consistency checks reconcile GDP growth with sector and expenditure projections
• Confidence ranges communicate uncertainty without obscuring central planning assumptions

Participants can develop plausible recovery scenarios and identify decision triggers.

• Scenario narratives combine epidemiological, economic, fiscal and external-sector assumptions
• Downside scenarios test renewed restrictions, commodity shocks and financial stress
• Upside scenarios assess faster investment, tourism recovery and export demand
• Sensitivity analysis varies critical assumptions while holding other inputs constant
• Decision triggers specify indicators requiring policy escalation, adjustment or withdrawal
• Scenario matrices compare output, employment, inflation, debt and poverty outcomes

Participants can identify sector-specific constraints and recovery opportunities using structured diagnostics.

• Location quotients identify concentrated industries and local employment dependencies
• Value-chain mapping traces disruptions from inputs through production, distribution and sales
• Sector scorecards compare demand, capacity, finance, labour and regulatory constraints
• Tourism recovery assessed through arrivals, occupancy, airlift and visitor spending
• Manufacturing bottlenecks examined through inventories, logistics, energy and imported inputs
• Small-enterprise diagnostics distinguish liquidity shortages from unviable business models

Participants can design labour-market measures that address employment losses and unequal recovery.

• Labour-market segmentation distinguishes formal, informal, seasonal and vulnerable workers
• Beveridge curve analysis compares vacancies, unemployment and skills-mismatch conditions
• Wage-subsidy schemes assessed against deadweight, displacement and targeting risks
• Active labour-market policies combine placement, training, counselling and mobility support
• Care economy constraints considered within women's labour-force participation recovery strategies
• Youth employment measures link apprenticeships, work experience and employer demand

Participants can assess business financing constraints and select appropriate support mechanisms.

• Working-capital cycle analysis identifies cash conversion and liquidity pressure points
• Credit guarantee schemes allocate risk between lenders, borrowers and government
• Debt-service capacity assessed using cash flow, coverage ratios and repayment profiles
• Forbearance measures compared with restructuring, refinancing and insolvency procedures
• SME support criteria distinguish temporary distress from fundamental non-viability
• Bank lending indicators track credit growth, non-performing loans and provisioning

Participants can incorporate monetary and financial-system conditions into recovery planning.

• Monetary transmission channels connect policy rates to credit, demand and inflation
• Yield curves signal borrowing costs, inflation expectations and investor confidence
• Exchange-rate pass-through assessed for imported inflation and external debt servicing
• Financial soundness indicators examine capital adequacy, liquidity and asset quality
• Macroprudential measures address excessive credit growth and concentrated lending exposures
• Central-bank and fiscal-policy coordination evaluated against institutional mandates

Participants can estimate fiscal space and assess debt implications of recovery measures.

• Fiscal space assessed through revenues, expenditures, financing access and debt dynamics
• Primary balance calculations distinguish policy effort from interest-payment pressures
• Debt sustainability analysis projects debt ratios under growth, interest and exchange assumptions
• Fiscal multipliers compared across transfers, infrastructure, tax relief and procurement
• Contingent liabilities captured from guarantees, public enterprises and public-private partnerships
• Medium-term fiscal frameworks align recovery commitments with credible consolidation paths

Participants can select and sequence policy instruments against defined recovery constraints.

• Policy instrument mapping matches constraints with fiscal, regulatory, monetary and institutional responses
• Automatic stabilisers compared with discretionary measures for speed and targeting
• Public procurement accelerates demand while applying value-for-money controls
• Tax deferrals distinguished from tax reductions, credits and payment instalments
• Public investment pipelines screen project readiness, employment effects and maintenance costs
• Exit strategies define criteria for tapering temporary emergency support

Participants can estimate direct, indirect and induced effects of selected recovery interventions.

• Input-output tables estimate inter-industry production, income and employment effects
• Keynesian multiplier calculations distinguish initial spending from total demand effects
• Leakage assumptions account for imports, savings, taxes and debt repayment
• Cost-effectiveness analysis compares employment, output or poverty results per expenditure unit
• Distributional analysis identifies likely gains across household groups and regions
• Model limitations documented where capacity constraints reduce multiplier estimates

Participants can appraise recovery investments using economic cost-benefit analysis.

• Economic costs adjust financial prices for taxes, subsidies and market distortions
• Discounted cash flow calculates net present value and benefit-cost ratios
• Shadow pricing values labour, foreign exchange and environmental externalities appropriately
• Sensitivity testing examines project viability under adverse cost and demand assumptions
• Switching values identify assumptions most likely to reverse investment decisions
• Non-monetised impacts recorded using multicriteria analysis and explicit weighting

Participants can integrate resilience, climate and infrastructure priorities into recovery investments.

• Resilient infrastructure screening tests exposure, vulnerability and service criticality
• Climate-risk assessments consider floods, heat, drought and supply disruptions
• Green public investment links employment creation with energy and resource efficiency
• Project prioritisation weighs readiness, additionality, resilience benefits and operating costs
• Natural capital considerations capture ecosystem services supporting livelihoods and production
• Lifecycle costing compares upfront expenditure with maintenance, replacement and disruption costs

Participants can assess external-sector risks and opportunities within a recovery strategy.

• Balance-of-payments analysis tracks trade, remittances, investment and reserve pressures
• Export diversification assesses product concentration, market dependence and competitiveness
• Foreign direct investment pipelines identify investor requirements and project barriers
• Trade facilitation measures reduce border delays, documentation costs and uncertainty
• Supply-chain resilience evaluates supplier concentration, inventory policies and transport alternatives
• External financing options compare concessional loans, grants, bonds and guarantees

Participants can establish governance arrangements that support accountable recovery delivery.

• Recovery governance maps decision rights, accountability, escalation and coordination mechanisms
• Delivery units track priority actions, unblock dependencies and report implementation risks
• RACI matrices assign responsibility, accountability, consultation and information requirements
• Anti-corruption controls address procurement fraud, beneficiary manipulation and conflicts of interest
• Stakeholder engagement plans define consultation purposes, channels and feedback responses
• Intergovernmental coordination aligns national measures with regional and municipal delivery

Participants can develop a financing strategy for recovery priorities and delivery capacity.

• Financing plans match intervention timing with budget, borrowing and donor resources
• Blended finance structures allocate public, private and development-finance risks
• Capital expenditure budgets distinguish project preparation, construction and maintenance funding
• Results-based financing links disbursements to verified outputs or outcome milestones
• Public-private partnership screening tests value for money, affordability and risk transfer
• Funding gap analysis prioritises measures under constrained resource scenarios

Participants can build a monitoring system that supports recovery accountability and adjustment.

• Results frameworks link recovery objectives, outcomes, outputs, activities and assumptions
• Indicator reference sheets define formulas, disaggregation, frequency and accountable owners
• Baseline values establish credible starting points for recovery target setting
• Leading indicators provide early warning before headline economic statistics appear
• Evaluation questions distinguish implementation performance, attribution and value for money
• Adaptive management reviews use evidence to revise priorities, budgets and delivery actions

Participants can communicate recovery evidence, trade-offs and recommendations to decision-makers.

• Policy briefs present problem definition, evidence, options, recommendation and implementation implications
• Executive dashboards combine economic indicators, milestones, risks and expenditure status
• Fan charts communicate forecast uncertainty more clearly than single-point projections
• Distributional impacts presented through affected groups, locations and income categories
• Risk communication explains trade-offs without overstating certainty or expected benefits
• Board presentations structure decisions around choices, costs, timing and accountability

Participants can build, review and present a complete economic recovery plan with diagnostics, scenarios, interventions, financing, delivery arrangements and monitoring measures.

• Recovery diagnostic synthesises macroeconomic, sector, labour, fiscal and financial evidence
• Scenario analysis compares baseline, upside and downside recovery pathways
• Priority interventions selected using impact, feasibility, equity and fiscal criteria
• Financing framework reconciles programme costs, funding sources and debt constraints
• Implementation roadmap assigns milestones, accountable owners, dependencies and risk responses
• Results framework specifies targets, indicators, data sources and review arrangements