Public Sector Strategic Foresight Training Course

Duration 5 days 10 modules · 33 contact hours
Level Advanced Certificate on completion
Who attends Senior Policy Advisers, Ministry Directors and others
Fee from USD 1,100 KSh 95,000 for Kenyan organisations
Where 52 cities + online See dates by city
Next start 9 Nov 2026 Course code SD-GPS-047

Before you join: Participants should have experience in public policy, government planning, development programming, humanitarian operations, public finance, risk management or organisational strategy.

Dates & prices

Two start dates a month in every city, and live online on weekdays or weekends. Fees are per participant; classroom fees include tuition, materials, lunch and refreshments, and the certificate.

Suggest a date or city

Showing the next six months. Later dates, other cities and private deliveries for your team are available on request.

Course overview

Public institutions face decisions whose consequences extend beyond electoral cycles, budget years and programme plans. Climate shocks, displacement, fiscal pressure, technology adoption, demographic change and political instability can alter policy assumptions quickly. Strategic foresight gives officials a disciplined way to examine plausible futures, identify emerging issues early and test whether current strategies remain credible under uncertainty. It is particularly valuable where delayed action creates high public costs or where policy choices affect vulnerable populations.

This advanced course covers the full public sector foresight process: defining decision-focused questions, horizon scanning, analysing drivers and systems, developing scenarios, stress-testing policies, backcasting from preferred futures and building early-warning arrangements. Participants work with methods used in government foresight units, including STEEP scanning, Causal Layered Analysis, Intuitive Logics, wind tunnelling, adaptive pathways and Three Horizons. The course also addresses participatory foresight, political neutrality, evidence quality and governance arrangements needed to connect futures work with policy, planning and budget decisions.

Teaching combines concise instructor briefings with public policy cases, facilitated group analysis, scenario simulations and structured application planning. Cases reflect issues familiar to government, development and humanitarian institutions, such as climate adaptation, social protection, urban services, disaster preparedness and displacement. Participants leave with a practical strategic foresight project pack, including a scoped foresight question, scanning framework, scenario structure, policy stress-test approach and implementation plan. A certificate of completion is issued to participants who complete the course.

The course suits senior public officials, policy advisers, programme leaders and analysts who need to introduce or strengthen foresight within ministries, agencies, municipalities, development organisations or humanitarian operations.

What you will be able to do

  • Frame decision-focused strategic foresight questions with clear scope, horizon and sponsorship
  • Conduct horizon scanning using STEEP categories, weak signals and trend cards
  • Analyse systemic drivers, feedback loops and critical uncertainties affecting public policy
  • Develop plausible scenario sets using the Intuitive Logics method
  • Stress-test policies through wind tunnelling, adaptive pathways and contingency triggers
  • Backcast from preferred futures into policy milestones, reforms and investment priorities
  • Design foresight governance, early-warning indicators and decision integration arrangements
  • Produce a strategic foresight project charter and application plan for a live policy issue

Benefits of attending

For you

  • Ability to lead evidence-based futures conversations with senior decision-makers
  • Practical scenario methods for complex public policy and programme choices
  • A repeatable approach for identifying emerging issues before they become crises
  • Stronger capability to challenge fixed assumptions without presenting speculation as fact
  • A work-ready foresight project plan for an active institutional priority

For your organisation

  • Earlier identification of policy risks, service pressures and emerging opportunities
  • Better-tested strategies under climate, fiscal, political and demographic uncertainty
  • Clearer links between long-term priorities, annual plans and budget choices
  • More credible contingency arrangements and early-warning response triggers
  • Internal capability to run structured foresight projects without relying solely on external advisers

Course modules

10 modules over 5 days

Participants can define the purpose, scope and governance basis for a public sector foresight assignment.

  • Strategic foresight mandates, governance roles and decision rights within public institutions
  • Distinguishing forecasting, risk management, contingency planning and strategic foresight purposes
  • OECD anticipatory governance principles linked to policy cycles and budget processes
  • Futures literacy concepts: probable, plausible, possible and preferred futures
  • Setting a decision-focused foresight question, scope, horizon and sponsor
  • Ethical safeguards for participation, indigenous knowledge, power and intergenerational equity

Participants can conduct structured horizon scanning and convert emerging signals into policy-relevant issues.

  • STEEP scanning taxonomy tailored to public policy, services and humanitarian systems
  • Scanning sources: administrative data, research, citizen feedback and field reporting
  • Weak signals assessed for novelty, relevance, credibility and potential impact
  • Trend cards separating evidence, inference, assumptions and implications
  • Driver mapping distinguishes predetermined elements from critical uncertainties
  • Signal-to-issue conversion using implications wheels and policy questions

Participants can analyse interdependencies, feedback loops and uncertainties shaping a policy issue.

  • Systems maps expose feedback loops, delays, dependencies and unintended consequences
  • Causal loop diagrams identify reinforcing and balancing dynamics
  • Stakeholder power-interest mapping includes affected communities and delivery partners
  • Problem framing tests institutional assumptions, boundary choices and equity effects
  • Causal Layered Analysis separates litany, systems, worldview and metaphor
  • Cross-impact matrices test relationships among drivers and uncertainties

Participants can create internally consistent scenarios that expose materially different policy conditions.

  • Futures Cone distinguishes projected, probable, plausible, possible and preferred futures
  • Scenario focal questions connect long-term uncertainty with current policy choices
  • Intuitive Logics produces distinct scenario logics from critical uncertainty axes
  • Scenario narratives specify actors, institutions, technology, norms and service outcomes
  • Consistency checks remove contradictory assumptions and duplicate scenario conditions
  • Scenario sets avoid optimism bias, false precision and single-trend extrapolation

Participants can apply foresight methods to development, fragility and humanitarian planning questions.

  • Climate, conflict, displacement and demographic change treated as interacting drivers
  • SDG targets used to test distributional consequences of alternative futures
  • Sendai Framework priorities inform disaster-risk and resilience futures
  • Humanitarian scenario planning incorporates access constraints, protection risks and localisation
  • Political economy analysis identifies incentives, rents, legitimacy and reform feasibility
  • Equity lenses examine gender, disability, age and geographic exclusion

Participants can assess whether policies and programmes remain effective across alternative futures.

  • Wind tunnelling tests existing strategies against each scenario's operating conditions
  • Policy stress tests identify failure points, trade-offs and contingent actions
  • Adaptive pathways sequence no-regret actions, triggers and decision points
  • Real options logic preserves flexibility under irreversible investment commitments
  • Portfolios balance exploitation, experimentation and preparedness across time horizons
  • Red teaming challenges assumptions, blind spots and politically convenient conclusions

Participants can translate preferred futures into sequenced policy actions and institutional commitments.

  • Backcasting defines milestones from preferred futures to present-day interventions
  • Three Horizons maps declining systems, transitional innovations and future patterns
  • Vision criteria specify public value, feasibility, legitimacy and equity
  • Policy mixes combine regulation, spending, service design and institutional reform
  • Roadmaps assign owners, dependencies, resources, milestones and review dates
  • Mission-oriented framing links long-term goals with measurable public outcomes

Participants can establish governance arrangements that connect foresight outputs with formal decisions.

  • Foresight governance establishes sponsorship, challenge roles and escalation routes
  • Decision gates connect foresight outputs to plans, budgets and legislation
  • Assumption registers record confidence levels, evidence sources and ownership
  • Early warning indicators specify thresholds, data sources and response authority
  • Monitoring systems distinguish leading indicators from lagging performance measures
  • Knowledge management preserves scanning records, scenarios and decision rationales

Participants can engage stakeholders and communicate uncertain futures without weakening evidence integrity.

  • Participatory foresight designs include citizens, frontline staff and marginalised groups
  • Delphi method structures anonymous expert judgement through iterative rounds
  • Stakeholder workshops surface competing values without forcing premature consensus
  • Communicating uncertainty uses scenario language, confidence statements and visual evidence
  • Briefing formats translate futures insights into ministerial choices and trade-offs
  • Political neutrality safeguards evidence integrity during contested policy debates

Participants can prepare a governed, decision-linked foresight project for their own institution.

  • Foresight project charters define mandate, question, horizon, sponsors and outputs
  • Workplans schedule scanning, sense-making, scenario development and decision engagements
  • Quality criteria assess plausibility, relevance, diversity, traceability and usability
  • Resource plans allocate analyst time, stakeholder access, data and facilitation
  • Application plans select a live policy decision and review cadence
  • Peer review strengthens assumptions, governance arrangements and implementation commitments

Exercises and examples are adapted to each cohort's sectors and roles.

What you take back to work

  1. Decision-focused foresight question template
  2. STEEP horizon-scanning and trend-card pack
  3. Public policy scenario development model
  4. Wind tunnelling policy stress-test checklist
  5. Adaptive pathways and early-warning indicator template
  6. Foresight project charter and implementation plan

Who should attend

  • Senior Policy Advisers — need to test policy choices against long-term uncertainty
  • Ministry Directors — need foresight evidence for strategy, planning and budget decisions
  • Government Strategy Managers — need repeatable processes for institutional futures work
  • Development Programme Managers — need to prepare programmes for changing development conditions
  • Humanitarian Planning Leaders — need scenarios for access, protection and displacement risks
  • Public Sector Analysts — need advanced methods for turning signals into decision evidence

Skills and tools covered

Horizon scanningScenario developmentSystems mappingPolicy stress testingAdaptive planningForesight governance

Tools and standards

Futures Cone, Causal Layered Analysis, Three Horizons, Sendai Framework

How the course runs

Training methodology

The course uses short expert briefings to introduce each method, followed by facilitated case analysis, group exercises and scenario-based simulations. Participants work through public sector decisions such as climate-resilient infrastructure, social protection reform, disaster preparedness and displacement planning. The instructor demonstrates how to move from signals and drivers to scenarios, policy tests and action pathways. Peer critique is used to test assumptions and improve decision relevance. Structured application planning helps each participant adapt the methods to a live institutional question.

Requirements and prerequisites

Participants should have experience in public policy, government planning, development programming, humanitarian operations, public finance, risk management or organisational strategy. They should be comfortable reading policy papers, discussing uncertain evidence and contributing to structured group analysis. Previous involvement in strategy development, programme design or scenario work is useful but not essential. The course assumes professional familiarity with a public sector issue participants can bring as a reference case. No prior qualification in futures studies, advanced statistics, coding, specialist software or formal forecasting is required.

A typical training day

08:30 – 10:30First session
10:30 – 10:45Refreshment break
10:45 – 12:30Second session
12:30 – 13:30Lunch and networking
13:30 – 15:00Third session
15:00 – 15:15Refreshment break
15:15 – 16:30Workshop and daily review

Live online deliveries follow the same structure in East Africa Time, with shorter screen blocks and longer breaks.

What the fee includes

  • Instruction by a practitioner facilitator
  • Full course workbook and materials
  • Exercise files, templates and case studies
  • Refreshments and lunch on classroom deliveries
  • Certificate of completion
  • Post-course application plan

Frequently asked questions

You should have professional experience in policy, planning, programmes, public administration, development or humanitarian work. Prior study of futures methods is not required, but participants should be able to discuss a current institutional issue.

Bring a policy, programme, service or strategic issue that your institution expects to face over the next five to 20 years. A current strategy, risk register, planning document or relevant data summary will help you apply the methods more directly.

It is designed for experienced public sector and development professionals who influence strategy, policy, planning, budgets or programme design. It also suits analysts and internal advisers asked to establish a foresight function.

Risk management commonly focuses on identified threats and controls, while strategic planning often starts from expected conditions. This course examines multiple plausible futures and tests whether current choices remain credible when underlying assumptions change.

You can use the tools to frame a foresight project, run a scanning cycle, develop scenarios and test a policy or programme. The final application plan identifies a live decision, relevant stakeholders, evidence needs and review points.

Training runs from 08:30 to 16:30 each day, providing about 6.5 contact hours daily. Time is divided among instructor input, case analysis, group work, simulations, peer critique and individual application planning.

Questions about this course?

Ask about dates, fees, group bookings or running it for your team. Our training team replies by email.

Ask on WhatsApp info@skillsetdevelopment.com

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