Strategic Foresight Training Course

Participants can build an evidence-based scanning system for emerging change.

• PESTLE scanning categories structure external change evidence and source collection
• Weak signals distinguished from trends, fads, events and established drivers
• Signal cards capture source, observation, relevance, confidence and implications
• Scanning sources assessed for authority, recency, bias and geographic relevance
• Issue clustering reveals related developments, tensions and possible discontinuities
• STEEP taxonomy compares social, technological, economic, environmental and political change

Participants can identify the forces most likely to shape a focal decision.

• Driver maps distinguish predetermined elements, critical uncertainties and wild cards
• Impact-uncertainty matrix prioritises forces with strategic significance and unpredictability
• Cross-impact analysis tests dependencies between political, economic and technological drivers
• Systems maps identify feedback loops, delays, constraints and reinforcing effects
• Assumption audits expose beliefs embedded within current strategies and forecasts
• Stakeholder mapping identifies actors, incentives, power shifts and contested outcomes

Participants can construct plausible, differentiated scenarios with decision relevance.

• Scenario axes combine two critical uncertainties into distinct future worlds
• Scenario logics test internal consistency between drivers, actors and outcomes
• Narrative archetypes prevent generic scenarios and unsupported trend extrapolation
• Baseline futures challenged through discontinuities, surprises and structural breaks
• Scenario names communicate memorable strategic conditions without false precision
• Wind-tunnelling criteria connect scenario content to specific strategic decisions

Participants can examine second-order consequences and challenge surface-level interpretations.

• Futures Wheels trace first, second and third-order consequences systematically
• Causal Layered Analysis examines litany, systems, worldview and metaphor layers
• Second-order effects reveal unintended consequences of policy and investment choices
• Mental models tested against alternative stakeholder interpretations and incentives
• Critical uncertainties revisited after systems analysis reveals hidden dependencies
• Scenario narratives strengthened with causal mechanisms rather than descriptive headlines

Participants can translate scenario insights into choices, capabilities and strategic responses.

• Implication matrices connect scenario conditions to customers, operations, finance and reputation
• Strategic options classified as no-regrets, hedges, bets and contingent actions
• Real options logic stages commitments where uncertainty remains materially unresolved
• Capability gap analysis identifies skills, assets, partnerships and governance requirements
• Opportunity-threat analysis compares value creation, exposure and reversibility
• Strategic assumptions converted into testable propositions and decision criteria

Participants can assess the resilience and adaptability of strategic choices across scenarios.

• Scenario wind-tunnelling tests existing strategies against contrasting future conditions
• Stress tests identify breakpoints, dependencies, concentration risks and fragile assumptions
• Resilience assessed through redundancy, diversity, modularity and recovery capacity
• Adaptive strategies specify commitments, options, triggers and review points
• Portfolio balance compares near-term performance with long-term strategic positioning
• Decision rules clarify when leaders persist, pivot, pause or exit

Participants can create pathways from preferred futures to near-term strategic action.

• Backcasting starts with a preferred future and identifies prerequisite conditions
• Milestone pathways sequence policy, capability, technology and partnership commitments
• Strategic roadmaps distinguish directional intent from fixed implementation schedules
• Critical path analysis identifies dependencies, decision gates and irreversible commitments
• Transition risks assessed for stakeholder resistance, funding constraints and execution capacity
• Action portfolios assign ownership, resources, timing and evidence requirements

Participants can establish monitoring and governance arrangements that keep foresight decision-relevant.

• Signposts identify observable developments supporting or weakening each scenario
• Leading indicators distinguish early movement from lagging performance measures
• Trigger thresholds define when strategic options require review or activation
• Indicator dashboards combine qualitative signals, operational data and expert judgement
• Foresight governance assigns ownership, escalation routes and decision forums
• Review cadences align scanning updates with budgets, risk reviews and strategy cycles

Participants can produce an implementation plan for integrating foresight into organisational decision processes.

• Planning-cycle integration links foresight outputs to budgets, portfolios and operating plans
• Executive communication presents uncertainty without overstating prediction or confidence
• Foresight maturity assessment identifies process, capability, culture and governance gaps
• Stakeholder engagement plans build sponsorship and constructive challenge across functions
• Evidence repositories retain signal sources, assumptions, scenarios and decision records
• Twelve-month action plan schedules pilots, reviews, responsibilities and success measures