Agile Planning and Estimation Training Course

Duration 10 days 20 modules · 65 contact hours
Level Intermediate Certificate on completion
Who attends Project Managers, PMO Managers and others
Fee from USD 2,200 KSh 190,000 for Kenyan organisations
Where 52 cities + online See dates by city
Next start 16 Nov 2026 Course code SD-AP-034

Before you join: Participants should have practical experience of projects, product delivery, business change or operational improvement.

Dates & prices

Two start dates a month in every city, and live online on weekdays or weekends. Fees are per participant; classroom fees include tuition, materials, lunch and refreshments, and the certificate.

Suggest a date or city

Showing the next six months. Later dates, other cities and private deliveries for your team are available on request.

Course overview

Agile teams need credible plans without pretending that uncertain work can be predicted precisely months in advance. Product leaders, delivery managers and PMO staff must balance strategic commitments with changing evidence, stakeholder expectations, capacity constraints and cross-team dependencies. Poor estimation practices create unreliable roadmaps, overloaded teams, missed milestones and difficult conversations about scope, cost and delivery confidence.

This course teaches participants to plan and estimate agile work at product, release, sprint and portfolio levels. Participants use product goals, user stories, story mapping, relative estimation, throughput data, velocity trends, capacity planning, probabilistic forecasting and dependency management. They learn how to select an estimation approach that fits the work, distinguish forecasts from commitments, manage uncertainty explicitly and communicate delivery confidence to sponsors and governance groups.

Teaching combines short instructor briefings with case work, group analysis, planning simulations and application to participants’ own projects. From the first week, participants build working planning artefacts and improve them through refinement, forecasting and review. They leave with an agile planning and estimation pack containing a product roadmap, prioritised backlog, release forecast, capacity model, risk analysis and stakeholder communication plan.

The course is designed for professionals who already work with projects, products, operational change or PMO governance and need stronger methods for planning uncertain delivery. It is particularly relevant where several teams contribute to a shared outcome, delivery dates matter, and leaders require transparent evidence behind forecasts.

What you will be able to do

  • Construct multi-horizon agile plans using product goals, roadmaps, releases and sprints
  • Create and refine a prioritised product backlog using user stories and acceptance criteria
  • Apply Planning Poker, affinity estimation and relative sizing to uncertain work
  • Forecast delivery dates and scope using velocity, throughput and Monte Carlo simulation
  • Develop capacity plans that account for team availability, skills and unplanned work
  • Analyse dependencies, risks and assumptions using dependency mapping and risk registers
  • Communicate forecast confidence, trade-offs and delivery options to governance stakeholders
  • Produce an integrated agile planning and estimation pack for a live delivery scenario

Benefits of attending

For you

  • Produce forecasts that show ranges, assumptions and confidence rather than unsupported dates
  • Run backlog refinement sessions with clearer sizing and acceptance criteria
  • Explain estimation uncertainty confidently to sponsors and senior stakeholders
  • Select suitable planning methods for product, project and operational change work
  • Build a reusable evidence base for release and portfolio planning decisions

For your organisation

  • Improve forecast reliability through transparent assumptions, historical data and confidence ranges
  • Reduce overcommitment by matching planned work to available team capacity
  • Expose cross-team dependencies before they become delivery blockers
  • Create consistent planning artefacts for PMO reporting and governance decisions
  • Support earlier scope, funding and sequencing decisions using quantified delivery options

Course modules

20 modules over 10 days

Participants can select appropriate planning horizons and empirical planning controls for uncertain delivery work.

  • Agile values, principles and empirical control compared with predictive planning
  • Cynefin domains distinguish complex work from complicated delivery problems
  • Plan on multiple horizons using rolling-wave refinement and feedback
  • Define value hypotheses, outcomes and measurable product goals
  • Inspect-and-adapt cycles link planning decisions to observed delivery evidence
  • Identify assumptions, constraints and dependencies before initial forecasting

Participants can translate strategic intent into measurable product goals and planning boundaries.

  • Product goals connect strategic intent, customer outcomes and delivery choices
  • OKRs distinguish outcome measures from output-based activity measures
  • Frame planning assumptions through problem statements and opportunity hypotheses
  • Map stakeholders by influence, interest, decision rights and information needs
  • Define planning boundaries for budget, dates, scope and regulatory obligations
  • Create outcome measures using leading indicators and lagging indicators

Participants can create a structured backlog containing clear, testable and estimable work items.

  • User stories express user, need and value using standard syntax
  • INVEST criteria assess backlog items before estimation and selection
  • Acceptance criteria define observable conditions of satisfaction for stories
  • Split oversized stories by workflow, business rule, data and interface
  • Epics, capabilities and features create backlog hierarchy without false precision
  • Non-functional requirements capture performance, security, accessibility and resilience needs

Participants can use story maps to sequence customer journeys and define viable release scope.

  • User Story Mapping visualises activities, tasks and release slices
  • Backbone activities organise user journeys into coherent planning views
  • Slice minimum viable releases through value, risk and learning criteria
  • Sequence stories using workflow order, dependencies and customer impact
  • Identify thin vertical slices that deliver observable user outcomes
  • Release boundaries distinguish mandatory scope from desirable future enhancements

Participants can prioritise backlog items using explicit value, urgency, risk and effort criteria.

  • MoSCoW prioritisation separates must-have, should-have, could-have and won't-have work
  • WSJF ranks work using cost of delay and job size
  • Cost of delay combines user value, time criticality and risk reduction
  • Kano analysis distinguishes basic, performance and attractive product features
  • Prioritisation policies prevent urgent requests displacing strategic delivery work
  • Document trade-offs between scope, timing, cost, quality and risk

Participants can apply relative estimation principles and establish a shared sizing reference.

  • Relative estimation compares uncertainty, complexity, effort and technical risk
  • Story points avoid misleading conversion into individual delivery hours
  • Reference stories establish shared anchors for consistent comparative sizing
  • Fibonacci scales reflect increasing uncertainty across larger backlog items
  • T-shirt sizing supports early portfolio and roadmap estimation discussions
  • Separate effort estimates from value assessments and delivery commitments

Participants can facilitate estimation sessions that produce usable estimates and expose uncertainty.

  • Planning Poker combines independent judgement, discussion and consensus-based sizing
  • Affinity estimation rapidly groups backlog items by relative size
  • Bucket System estimation handles large backlogs through comparative placement
  • Wideband Delphi records assumptions before converging expert estimates
  • Outlier discussions reveal hidden complexity, ambiguity and delivery risk
  • Estimation agreements define participation, evidence, scale and escalation rules

Participants can run structured refinement that prepares work for reliable planning and selection.

  • Refinement cadences maintain a ready pipeline of prioritised work
  • Definition of Ready clarifies information needed before sprint consideration
  • Clarify business rules, data needs, interfaces and acceptance criteria
  • Spikes reduce uncertainty where research or technical investigation is required
  • Record estimation assumptions alongside stories requiring future validation
  • Remove blocked items from near-term forecasts until dependencies are resolved

Participants can create achievable sprint plans using capacity, availability and delivery evidence.

  • Sprint goals focus selected work around a meaningful delivery objective
  • Capacity planning accounts for leave, training, support and ceremonies
  • Calculate available person-days before selecting candidate backlog items
  • Skill matrices identify specialist bottlenecks and pairing opportunities
  • Unplanned work allowances protect sprint forecasts from operational disruption
  • Sprint backlogs connect selected stories, tasks, risks and daily inspection

Participants can interpret flow and velocity measures without misusing them as performance targets.

  • Velocity measures completed relative size across comparable sprint conditions
  • Throughput counts completed work items over a defined period
  • Use completed work only when calculating historical delivery performance
  • Control charts show cycle-time variation and work-item completion patterns
  • Avoid velocity targets that distort estimation and encourage oversized stories
  • Segment data when team composition, workflow or item types change

Participants can use Kanban flow data to identify bottlenecks and forecast work completion.

  • Kanban boards make workflow states, policies and blocked work visible
  • Work-in-progress limits expose bottlenecks and reduce multitasking delays
  • Cumulative flow diagrams reveal queues, flow stability and constraint locations
  • Little's Law relates work-in-progress, throughput and cycle time
  • Service level expectations define probability-based completion time targets
  • Replenishment meetings select work according to capacity and service policies

Participants can construct outcome-based roadmaps and release plans using realistic delivery evidence.

  • Outcome-based roadmaps communicate direction without fixed feature promises
  • Release plans combine prioritised scope, capacity, sequencing and confidence
  • Plan release increments around validated outcomes and operational readiness
  • Use milestone maps for external deadlines, governance gates and dependencies
  • Date-driven planning identifies scope options before making delivery commitments
  • Scope-driven planning forecasts probable completion windows from delivery data

Participants can produce probability-based delivery forecasts from historical throughput or cycle-time data.

  • Monte Carlo simulation generates forecast ranges from historical delivery samples
  • Throughput-based simulations estimate completion dates for fixed scope backlogs
  • Cycle-time simulations estimate completion likelihood for individual work items
  • Percentile forecasts express confidence levels without claiming certainty
  • Validate historical data for representativeness, stability and sufficient sample size
  • Present P50, P70 and P85 forecasts for different risk appetites

Participants can assess forecast risk and show how critical assumptions affect delivery options.

  • Risk registers capture probability, impact, owner, response and trigger
  • Assumption logs distinguish validated evidence from planning beliefs and estimates
  • Sensitivity analysis tests effects of capacity, scope and dependency changes
  • Three-point estimates represent optimistic, likely and pessimistic delivery conditions
  • Risk-adjusted forecasts include contingency based on quantified uncertainty sources
  • Escalation thresholds identify when forecast changes require governance decisions

Participants can identify and manage delivery dependencies across teams, suppliers and governance groups.

  • Dependency maps show predecessor, successor, interface and handoff relationships
  • Classify dependencies as knowledge, resource, technical, approval or supplier constraints
  • Programme boards coordinate cross-team milestones, risks and integration dates
  • Manage external dependencies through service agreements and explicit lead times
  • Dependency owners maintain actions, due dates and escalation routes
  • Integration planning includes environments, data, testing and deployment readiness

Participants can align agile planning artefacts with proportionate PMO governance and reporting requirements.

  • PMO governance distinguishes decision controls from unnecessary reporting activity
  • Stage gates use evidence-based criteria rather than fixed documentation volumes
  • Portfolio Kanban visualises demand, approval, delivery and benefit realisation
  • Business cases express expected outcomes, costs, risks and confidence ranges
  • Agile metrics support governance through trends, forecasts and exception reporting
  • Align team cadences with portfolio reviews, funding cycles and audit needs

Participants can communicate delivery forecasts, uncertainty and trade-offs clearly to decision-makers.

  • Forecast narratives explain scope, evidence, assumptions, range and confidence
  • Use fan charts to communicate uncertainty across future delivery periods
  • Decision logs record choices, rationale, owners and review dates
  • Escalate trade-offs using options framed by value, cost and risk
  • Executive dashboards separate leading indicators from lagging delivery measures
  • Respond to fixed-date requests with scope scenarios and probability ranges

Participants can incorporate quality work, technical debt and operational readiness into agile plans.

  • Definition of Done includes testing, documentation, security and deployment criteria
  • Technical debt registers make remediation work visible within prioritisation decisions
  • Quality costs compare prevention, appraisal, failure and rework impacts
  • Operational readiness plans cover support, training, monitoring and rollback
  • Non-functional work receives explicit backlog treatment and release acceptance criteria
  • Release checklists confirm compliance, resilience, ownership and service readiness

Participants can improve estimation and planning reliability through structured feedback and data review.

  • Retrospectives examine planning accuracy, flow constraints and collaboration patterns
  • Five Whys identifies root causes behind repeated forecast variance
  • Fishbone diagrams organise causes across people, process, technology and policy
  • Track planned-versus-completed work to test selection and capacity assumptions
  • Calibration reviews compare estimate ranges with actual delivery outcomes
  • Improvement backlogs assign owners, measures and review dates for changes

Participants can build, review and present a complete agile planning and estimation pack for a realistic delivery initiative.

  • Define product goals, stakeholders, assumptions and measurable outcome measures
  • Construct a story map with prioritised release slices and acceptance criteria
  • Estimate selected backlog items using relative sizing and documented assumptions
  • Model team capacity, dependencies, risks and operational readiness activities
  • Generate release forecasts using velocity, throughput or Monte Carlo evidence
  • Present delivery options, confidence ranges, trade-offs and governance decisions

Exercises and examples are adapted to each cohort's sectors and roles.

What you take back to work

  1. Multi-horizon agile planning template
  2. Prioritised user story map
  3. Relative estimation and calibration guide
  4. Capacity and release forecasting model
  5. Dependency and risk management register
  6. Stakeholder forecast communication pack

Who should attend

  • Project Managers — needing credible forecasts for iterative delivery programmes
  • PMO Managers — establishing planning standards and evidence-based delivery reporting
  • Product Owners — prioritising backlogs and communicating release expectations
  • Scrum Masters — improving team estimation, refinement and sprint planning practices
  • Delivery Managers — coordinating capacity, dependencies and milestones across teams
  • Business Analysts — translating stakeholder needs into estimable backlog items

Skills and tools covered

Agile roadmap planningRelative estimationProbabilistic forecastingBacklog refinementCapacity modellingDependency management

Tools and standards

Scrum Guide, Kanban Method, User Story Mapping, Monte Carlo simulation

How the course runs

Training methodology

The course uses short briefings to introduce methods, followed by case analysis, facilitated group work, planning simulations and individual application planning. Participants work through a connected delivery scenario, building planning artefacts from product goal through release forecast. Estimation discussions compare expert judgement, relative sizing and flow-based evidence. Trainers use examples from digital services, banking change, public programmes and operational improvement. Each participant receives structured feedback on assumptions, forecasts, stakeholder messages and their final planning pack.

Requirements and prerequisites

Participants should have practical experience of projects, product delivery, business change or operational improvement. Familiarity with basic agile terms such as backlog, sprint, user story and Scrum team is useful, although these concepts are refreshed early in the course. Participants should be comfortable discussing scope, schedules, risks and stakeholder expectations. Prior formal agile certification is not required. No advanced mathematics, programming skills, specialist planning software or prior experience with Monte Carlo simulation is required; forecasting calculations are explained step by step.

A typical training day

08:30 – 10:30First session
10:30 – 10:45Refreshment break
10:45 – 12:30Second session
12:30 – 13:30Lunch and networking
13:30 – 15:00Third session
15:00 – 15:15Refreshment break
15:15 – 16:30Workshop and daily review

Live online deliveries follow the same structure in East Africa Time, with shorter screen blocks and longer breaks.

What the fee includes

  • Instruction by a practitioner facilitator
  • Full course workbook and materials
  • Exercise files, templates and case studies
  • Refreshments and lunch on classroom deliveries
  • Certificate of completion
  • Post-course application plan

Frequently asked questions

You should have worked on projects, products, business change or operational improvement and know basic agile terminology. Formal agile certification, advanced mathematics and specialist software experience are not required.

Bring a laptop if possible and, where permitted, a current project, product backlog or planning challenge. Trainers provide course materials, templates and the data needed for the case work.

It suits project managers, product owners, Scrum Masters, PMO professionals, business analysts and delivery managers. It is intended for professionals who need better evidence behind plans, estimates and delivery forecasts.

Fundamentals courses explain agile roles, events and principles. This course concentrates on planning artefacts, estimation methods, capacity modelling, release forecasting, dependencies and governance communication.

Participants can use the templates with their own backlog, roadmap or change initiative immediately. The methods support sprint planning, release planning, portfolio reviews and conversations about uncertain delivery dates.

Each training day runs from 08:30 to 16:30 and provides about 6.5 contact hours. The first week establishes backlog, prioritisation and estimation methods; the second week develops forecasting, governance and the final integrated capstone.

Questions about this course?

Ask about dates, fees, group bookings or running it for your team. Our training team replies by email.