Business Decision Making Training Course

Participants can assess evidence quality and document assumptions that influence a strategic recommendation.

• Evidence hierarchy comparing administrative data, research, expert judgement and anecdotes
• Assumption logs recording source, confidence level, owner and validation method
• Fact, inference and judgement separated within decision documentation
• Data quality tests for completeness, accuracy, timeliness and comparability
• Triangulating conflicting evidence from customers, finance, operations and regulators
• Decision-quality checklist covering framing, alternatives, information and commitment

Participants can analyse external forces that shape a strategic decision and its feasible options.

• PESTLE analysis identifying political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental forces
• Porter's Five Forces assessing industry profitability and competitive pressure
• Market sizing using top-down, bottom-up and demand-driver approaches
• Competitor profiles comparing positioning, capabilities, economics and likely responses
• Customer segmentation using needs, value, behaviour and purchasing criteria
• Regulatory horizon scanning identifying pending rules, licences and compliance exposure

Participants can assess organisational capability and determine whether options fit strategic intent.

• Value-chain analysis locating cost drivers, bottlenecks and sources of differentiation
• VRIO assessment testing valuable, rare, inimitable and organised capabilities
• SWOT synthesis linking internal capability to external opportunity and threat
• Core competence mapping against proposed products, services and markets
• Resource capacity analysis covering skills, assets, funding and management attention
• Strategic fit tests aligning options with mission, mandate and operating model

Participants can map stakeholder influence and establish governance for complex decisions.

• Stakeholder mapping by power, interest, legitimacy and decision impact
• Mendelow matrix prioritising stakeholder engagement and communication effort
• Influence networks identifying formal authority, informal sponsors and potential blockers
• Governance structures defining recommendation, challenge, approval and escalation roles
• Consultation plans distinguishing inform, consult, involve and collaborate activities
• Political risk indicators linked to stakeholder interests and contested outcomes

Participants can develop distinct, feasible options rather than evaluating a predetermined solution.

• Strategic options generated through make, buy, partner, defer and exit choices
• Hypothesis-driven thinking converting assumptions into testable strategic propositions
• Baseline option defining consequences of maintaining current direction
• Mutually exclusive alternatives designed for meaningful comparison and choice
• Option descriptions specifying scope, target outcomes, resources and timing
• Real-options thinking preserving flexibility under uncertain demand or regulation

Participants can establish decision criteria and compare strategic options using weighted scoring.

• Decision criteria derived from strategic objectives, constraints and stakeholder requirements
• Must-have thresholds separating disqualifying conditions from preference criteria
• Weighted scoring models ranking options against agreed evaluation factors
• Analytic Hierarchy Process structuring pairwise comparisons of competing criteria
• Scoring scales defined with observable anchors and evidence requirements
• Criteria weights tested through stakeholder review and sensitivity checks

Participants can evaluate the financial consequences of strategic options using standard investment measures.

• Cost-benefit analysis identifying cash costs, benefits, externalities and opportunity costs
• Net present value calculated from discounted incremental cash flows
• Internal rate of return interpreted alongside NPV and strategic criteria
• Payback period assessing liquidity exposure and capital recovery timing
• Fixed, variable and step costs modelled under alternative demand levels
• Benefit-realisation profiles linking financial outcomes to operational milestones

Participants can model sequential choices and uncertain outcomes using decision trees.

• Decision trees mapping choices, chance events, outcomes and information points
• Expected monetary value calculated using probabilities and financial consequences
• Probability estimates elicited from data, experts and reference cases
• Conditional probabilities distinguishing dependent events from independent uncertainties
• Value of information assessing whether further research justifies delay
• Rollback analysis identifying preferred paths from terminal outcomes backward

Participants can test whether a preferred option remains viable under changing assumptions.

• Scenario planning constructing plausible futures from critical uncertainties
• Scenario axes combining high-impact uncertainties into distinct operating conditions
• Sensitivity analysis testing demand, price, cost, timing and discount-rate assumptions
• Tornado charts ranking variables by influence on financial results
• Break-even analysis identifying minimum volume, price or utilisation requirements
• Trigger indicators defining when leaders should revisit the decision

Participants can identify, assess and treat risks associated with strategic alternatives.

• Risk registers documenting cause, event, consequence, owner and response
• ISO 31000 principles applied to strategic risk identification and treatment
• Likelihood-impact matrices prioritising risks requiring executive attention
• Bow-tie analysis connecting preventive controls, events and recovery controls
• Risk appetite statements distinguishing acceptable exposure from escalation thresholds
• Contingency plans assigning triggers, actions, resources and communications

Participants can recognise behavioural and ethical factors that distort strategic decision-making.

• Confirmation bias challenged through disconfirming evidence and red-team review
• Anchoring effects identified in forecasts, valuations and negotiation positions
• Sunk-cost fallacy separated from forward-looking economic evaluation
• Groupthink prevented through independent scoring and structured dissent
• Ethical decision screens assessing rights, fairness, harm and public interest
• Conflicts of interest disclosed before option evaluation and approval

Participants can select a preferred option and construct a clear evidence-based recommendation.

• Recommendation logic linking decision criteria, evidence, trade-offs and preferred option
• Weighted scorecards reconciled with thresholds, risks and qualitative judgement
• Trade-off statements explaining what each rejected option sacrifices
• Recommendation conditions specifying approvals, funding and critical dependencies
• No-regret actions identified before final commitment under uncertainty
• Executive decision papers structured for review, challenge and approval

Participants can convert an approved decision into an accountable implementation and benefits plan.

• Implementation roadmaps sequencing workstreams, milestones, owners and decision gates
• Critical path analysis identifying dependencies that determine delivery timing
• RACI matrices assigning responsible, accountable, consulted and informed roles
• Benefits maps linking activities, outputs, outcomes and strategic objectives
• Key performance indicators defined with baseline, target, owner and frequency
• Stage-gate reviews establishing continuation, revision and stop decisions

Participants can present a concise decision case suited to executive review and challenge.

• Executive summaries stating decision requested, recommendation, rationale and required action
• Pyramid Principle structuring messages from conclusion to supporting evidence
• Decision visuals comparing options, criteria, risks and financial outcomes
• Board-paper narratives distinguishing material facts from supporting detail
• Anticipating challenge questions on assumptions, downside exposure and alternatives
• Presentation delivery handling disagreement, uncertainty and requests for clarification

Participants can establish review processes that improve future strategic decisions.

• Decision journals recording assumptions, forecasts, rationale and expected outcomes
• After-action reviews comparing expected results with realised performance
• Premortem analysis identifying plausible failure modes before commitment
• Post-investment reviews testing benefits, costs, timing and governance assumptions
• Learning loops converting decision outcomes into revised planning assumptions
• Portfolio reviews reallocating resources across initiatives using performance evidence

Participants can assemble analysis, financial evidence, risks and implementation requirements into a decision dossier.

• Decision dossier sections integrating context, options, analysis and recommendation
• Evidence packs linking claims to source data and documented assumptions
• Option scorecards combining strategic fit, economics, risk and stakeholder impact
• Financial models checked for formulas, assumptions, units and version control
• Peer review protocols testing logic, completeness, clarity and recommendation strength
• Revision priorities set from evidence gaps, stakeholder concerns and review findings

Participants can build, review and present a complete strategic decision recommendation supported by evidence, analysis and an implementation plan.

• Select a live strategic decision with defined sponsor and decision owner
• Frame the decision using issue trees, assumptions and stakeholder analysis
• Compare alternatives through weighted criteria, financial analysis and risk assessment
• Test the preferred option through scenarios, sensitivities and implementation dependencies
• Prepare an executive decision dossier with recommendation, evidence and decision request
• Present the complete case, respond to challenge and refine next actions