Energy Project Finance and Economic Modelling Masterclass Training Course

Participants can construct defensible operating and revenue assumptions for major energy asset types.

• Demand forecasts translated into contracted volumes and dispatch assumptions
• Capacity factors derived from resource data, outages, and curtailment
• Availability-based payments distinguished from energy-volume revenue mechanisms
• Tariff escalation indexed to inflation, foreign exchange, or fuel
• Take-or-pay, take-and-pay, and merchant revenue risk compared
• Generation forecasts reconciled with grid constraints and planned maintenance

Participants can model the principal cost, working-capital and tax drivers of project cash flow.

• Capital expenditure schedules separated into development, construction, and contingencies
• EPC payment milestones linked to construction progress and retention
• Operating costs classified as fixed, variable, periodic, and pass-through
• Fuel costs modelled through heat rates, supply prices, and escalation
• Working capital movements calculated from receivables, inventories, and payables
• Tax depreciation, loss carry-forwards, withholding tax, and VAT treatment

Participants can build a transparent integrated model with controlled assumptions and linked statements.

• Model architecture separating inputs, calculations, outputs, and audit checks
• FAST Standard principles applied to financial model structure
• Timeline design using construction periods, operations dates, and debt tenors
• Income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow links established
• Circularity management for interest, cash sweeps, and tax calculations
• Assumption registers documenting sources, ownership, and approval status

Participants can model project cash priorities, reserve accounts and equity distribution restrictions.

• Project company cash waterfall sequenced from revenue through distributions
• Debt service reserve account sizing and permitted withdrawal conditions
• Major maintenance reserves aligned with lifecycle expenditure forecasts
• Restricted payments tested against distribution lock-up provisions
• Cash sweeps applied after minimum liquidity and covenant requirements
• Waterfall priorities reconciled with financing agreements and shareholder arrangements

Participants can determine debt capacity and repayment profiles using lender credit criteria.

• Debt sizing constrained by DSCR, LLCR, gearing, and lender limits
• Base-case DSCR calculated from cash available for debt service
• LLCR and PLCR calculated using discounted future debt-service cash flows
• Principal repayments sculpted to projected cash available for debt service
• Interest during construction capitalised and integrated into funding requirements
• Covenant headroom assessed under lender downside-case assumptions

Participants can evaluate project and investor returns using disciplined discounted cash flow analysis.

• Project NPV separated from equity NPV and sponsor returns
• WACC estimated using capital structure, beta evidence, and debt costs
• Nominal and real cash flows matched with consistent discount rates
• Economic costs and benefits adjusted for taxes, transfers, and externalities
• Shadow pricing and opportunity-cost principles applied to public investment
• IRR limitations identified for non-conventional and multiple-sign cash flows

Participants can assess whether a PPP risk allocation is commercially coherent and financeable.

• Risk allocation matrix distinguishes retained, transferred, and shared risks
• Construction delay risk allocated through EPC completion guarantees
• Offtaker payment risk mitigated through guarantees and escrow structures
• Change-in-law clauses distinguish discriminatory, specific, and general changes
• Force majeure regimes tested for relief, compensation, and termination
• Value for money assessed against public-sector comparator assumptions

Participants can identify contract terms that determine revenue security and lender acceptability.

• Power purchase agreement provisions linked to projected revenue certainty
• Tariff adjustment formulas tested against inflation and currency exposure
• Direct agreements establish lender step-in rights and cure periods
• EPC liquidated damages assessed against delay and performance exposures
• O&M agreements reviewed for availability guarantees and termination rights
• Termination compensation aligned with outstanding debt and equity recovery

Participants can compare financing sources and design an appropriate project capital structure.

• Sponsor equity, shareholder loans, and preferred equity compared
• Commercial bank loans assessed for tenor, pricing, and refinancing risk
• Development finance institution participation evaluated for risk mitigation
• Export credit agency support linked to procurement and country eligibility
• Green bonds and project bonds compared with bank financing
• Blended finance structures tested for concessionality and additionality

Participants can conduct a lender-oriented review of project evidence, covenants and security.

• Technical due diligence findings translated into financial model assumptions
• Legal due diligence confirms land rights, permits, and contract enforceability
• Environmental and social due diligence aligned with IFC Performance Standards
• Common terms agreement coordinates intercreditor rights and payment priorities
• Security package covers shares, accounts, contracts, and project assets
• Conditions precedent tracked through a financing closing checklist

Participants can test project resilience and communicate the drivers of financial downside.

• One-way sensitivities quantify value exposure to critical assumptions
• Two-way data tables test combined tariff and cost movements
• Lender downside cases apply conservative operational and financial assumptions
• Scenario analysis links correlated shocks across prices, volumes, and costs
• Break-even analysis identifies minimum tariff, availability, and capacity factors
• Tornado charts rank variables by NPV and DSCR impact

Participants can assess affordability and contingent liabilities arising from energy PPP commitments.

• Availability-payment commitments forecasted within medium-term fiscal expenditure frameworks
• Government guarantees valued using probability-weighted contingent liability methods
• Foreign exchange exposure assessed for sovereign payment obligations
• Tariff subsidies modelled separately from project-company revenue requirements
• Fiscal risk registers assign owners, triggers, and mitigation actions
• Affordability tests reconcile sector budgets with contracted payment profiles

Participants can review a project model for structural errors, weak assumptions and misleading outputs.

• Model integrity checks identify broken links, hardcodes, and sign errors
• Balance sheet balancing tests detect incomplete financing and accounting logic
• Sources-and-uses reconciliation confirms funding sufficiency at financial close
• Independent model review scope covers logic, formulas, and documentation
• Version control records assumption changes and approval decisions
• Investment memoranda distinguish facts, assumptions, sensitivities, and recommendations

Participants can prepare financing and contract positions that protect value while preserving bankability.

• Negotiation priorities derived from model sensitivities and covenant headroom
• Term-sheet provisions assessed for pricing, tenor, security, and flexibility
• Sponsor returns tested against distribution restrictions and refinancing assumptions
• Public-authority positions prepared on guarantees, termination, and tariff adjustment
• Risk mitigation measures matched to parties best able to manage
• Negotiation fallback positions documented with quantified financial consequences

Participants can build, review and present a complete energy project finance model and investment case.

• Integrated model completed from operational assumptions through financing outputs
• Base case validated using balance, cash flow, and audit checks
• Debt sizing and repayment profile aligned with lender coverage requirements
• PPP risk allocation assessed against bankability and public affordability
• Downside scenario findings converted into mitigations and decision conditions
• Investment committee presentation defends recommendation, risks, and required approvals