Macroeconomic Analysis and Diagnostics Training Course

Participants can select, validate and reconcile economic data for a reliable diagnostic baseline.

• National statistical sources, central-bank releases, IMF databases and market data
• Frequency, seasonality and base effects in monthly and quarterly indicators
• Nominal versus real measures, deflators and constant-price series construction
• Revision histories assessed before drawing conclusions from preliminary releases
• Outlier checks using rates of change, index levels and cross-series comparisons
• Data dictionary documenting definitions, units, sources, dates and known limitations

Participants can diagnose growth performance using expenditure, production and income approaches to GDP.

• GDP expenditure identity separating consumption, investment, government spending and net exports
• Production-side growth decomposed by agriculture, industry, services and extraction
• Contribution analysis identifying components driving aggregate GDP growth changes
• Potential output, output gaps and cyclical versus structural growth factors
• Gross fixed capital formation assessed for capacity, productivity and demand signals
• Income-account measures linking wages, profits, taxes and household purchasing power

Participants can identify inflation drivers and assess their economic and institutional implications.

• Consumer price index construction, weights, headline inflation and core inflation
• Food, energy and administered-price shocks separated from underlying inflation pressures
• Year-on-year, month-on-month and annualised inflation measures compared correctly
• Producer prices, import prices and exchange-rate pass-through to consumer prices
• Phillips curve evidence relating slack, wages, productivity and inflation expectations
• Real wage and purchasing-power analysis using earnings and consumer-price data

Participants can assess labour-market conditions and their links to demand, costs and inflation.

• Employment, unemployment, participation and underemployment indicators interpreted jointly
• Labour-force survey definitions distinguished from administrative employment records
• Wage growth decomposed into productivity, bargaining, minimum-wage and composition effects
• Unit labour costs calculated from compensation, employment and output measures
• Okun's law used to test output-employment relationships during growth cycles
• Demographic trends assessed for labour supply, dependency and fiscal pressures

Participants can assess monetary policy stance and its transmission to the real economy.

• Policy-rate corridor, reserve requirements and open-market operations compared
• Real policy rates calculated against current and expected inflation measures
• Taylor rule benchmarks used to assess stated monetary-policy stance
• Interest-rate pass-through traced from policy rates to lending and deposit rates
• Money aggregates, credit growth and liquidity indicators assessed together
• Financial conditions indexes combining rates, spreads, exchange rates and equity prices

Participants can interpret fiscal accounts and identify pressures on public finances.

• Revenue composition analysed across taxes, grants, resource receipts and non-tax income
• Expenditure classified by current, capital, mandatory and discretionary categories
• Overall balance, primary balance and cyclically adjusted balance distinguished
• Fiscal impulse estimated from changes in structural balances and expenditure
• Budget execution assessed through planned, committed and actual expenditure data
• Contingent liabilities identified in guarantees, SOEs, PPPs and financial institutions

Participants can evaluate debt sustainability, refinancing risk and fiscal adjustment requirements.

• Debt dynamics equation linking interest rates, growth, primary balance and valuation changes
• Debt-to-GDP paths projected under baseline, adverse and reform assumptions
• Maturity, currency composition and creditor concentration assessed for refinancing risk
• Gross financing needs calculated from deficits, amortisation and liquidity buffers
• Debt sustainability analysis distinguishes solvency, liquidity and market-access risks
• Fiscal adjustment options assessed for growth effects and political feasibility

Participants can diagnose external imbalances using balance-of-payments accounts and trade data.

• Balance-of-payments accounts separating current, capital and financial-account transactions
• Current-account balance decomposed into goods, services, income and transfers
• Trade performance analysed through volumes, prices, terms of trade and partners
• Foreign direct investment distinguished from portfolio flows and external borrowing
• Net international investment position assessed alongside annual balance-of-payments flows
• Errors and omissions examined as signals of data gaps or unrecorded flows

Participants can assess exchange-rate pressures and a country’s capacity to absorb external shocks.

• Nominal, real and real-effective exchange rates interpreted for competitiveness
• Mundell-Fleming framework links capital mobility, exchange regimes and policy autonomy
• Foreign-exchange reserve adequacy assessed against imports, debt and broad money
• Exchange-rate regimes classified by announced arrangements and observed interventions
• Currency mismatch analysed across sovereign, banking, corporate and household balance sheets
• External vulnerability indicators combine short-term debt, reserves, deficits and capital flows

Participants can identify macrofinancial channels between banking conditions and economic performance.

• Bank balance sheets connect deposits, loans, securities, capital and liquidity
• Credit-to-GDP gaps used to identify excessive lending and deleveraging cycles
• Non-performing loan ratios assessed alongside provisioning, capital and profitability
• Bank-sovereign nexus examined through government securities holdings and guarantees
• Property prices, collateral values and household debt linked to financial stability
• Stress indicators combine funding costs, spreads, liquidity and market volatility

Participants can assess how commodity and supply shocks affect growth, inflation and fiscal outcomes.

• Commodity-price cycles traced through export revenues, fiscal receipts and foreign exchange
• Terms-of-trade movements linked to purchasing power and current-account changes
• Food and fuel shocks separated into direct, indirect and second-round inflation effects
• Supply disruptions assessed through import dependence, inventories and transport bottlenecks
• Resource-revenue volatility addressed using fiscal rules and stabilisation funds
• Sensitivity tables quantify macroeconomic exposure to commodity-price and volume changes

Participants can construct transparent macroeconomic scenarios with coherent assumptions and risk paths.

• Forecast assumptions documented for global demand, commodities, policy and financial conditions
• Baseline projections connect GDP, inflation, fiscal, external and credit variables
• Scenario trees distinguish shocks, policy responses, transmission channels and outcomes
• Leading indicators used to update near-term growth and inflation assessments
• Forecast-error analysis compares prior assumptions, outcomes and revision causes
• Sensitivity analysis quantifies effects of exchange-rate, rate and commodity shocks

Participants can assess policy choices, trade-offs and implementation constraints during macroeconomic stress.

• Fiscal, monetary, exchange-rate and macroprudential policy instruments compared
• Policy mix assessed against inflation, growth, debt and external-balance objectives
• Lags, credibility and expectations incorporated into policy impact assessments
• Distributional effects examined across households, firms, regions and income groups
• IMF-supported programme conditions analysed through targets, reforms and financing needs
• Policy communication evaluated for clarity, consistency and expectation-management effects

Participants can translate macroeconomic evidence into concise, decision-relevant country risk reporting.

• Country-risk framework separates macroeconomic, political, financial and operational risks
• Risk heat maps rank probability, impact, velocity and early-warning indicators
• Evidence chains connect data observations, causal diagnosis and decision implications
• Rating triggers defined for fiscal deterioration, reserve losses and inflation acceleration
• Executive briefings distinguish facts, assumptions, judgements and recommended actions
• Risk-monitoring calendars assign release dates, owners, thresholds and escalation routes

Participants can build, review and present a complete macroeconomic diagnostic pack for a selected country or market.

• Country data pack assembled from national accounts, prices, fiscal and external sources
• Diagnostic narrative integrates growth, inflation, policy, debt, reserves and banking conditions
• Baseline scenario states assumptions, projected indicators and principal transmission channels
• Adverse scenario tests financing pressure, currency depreciation and policy responses
• Risk assessment prioritises vulnerabilities, triggers, mitigations and institutional implications
• Peer review tests evidence quality, internal consistency and decision relevance
• Executive presentation communicates findings, uncertainties, recommendations and monitoring priorities