Strategic Foresight and Long-Term Policy Training Course

Participants can establish a structured scanning process that identifies and assesses emerging policy change.

• STEEP scanning categories structure demographic, technological and institutional change
• Signal logs separate trends, weak signals, wild cards and noise
• Source triangulation tests evidence quality, provenance, bias and timeliness
• Driver cards record direction, momentum, impact pathways and confidence ratings
• Cross-impact matrices expose dependencies between drivers, shocks and policy choices
• Scanning governance sets collection cadence, thresholds and escalation routes

Participants can diagnose policy systems, assumptions and feedback mechanisms that shape future outcomes.

• System maps connect actors, incentives, feedback loops, stocks and flows
• Causal loop diagrams distinguish reinforcing and balancing dynamics
• Problem framing tests root causes against symptoms, assumptions and boundary choices
• Futures Wheels trace first-, second- and third-order policy consequences
• Equity impact questions identify distributional effects across population groups
• Assumption audits classify certainties, uncertainties, constraints and contestable beliefs

Participants can develop plausible scenarios that reveal materially different conditions for policy action.

• Scenario focal questions specify the decision, horizon, users and stakes
• Critical uncertainty matrices select high-impact, high-uncertainty scenario axes
• Scenario logics create internally consistent worlds without preferred outcomes
• Narrative architecture covers governance, economy, society, technology and environment
• Quantified indicators anchor scenario conditions using ranges rather than point forecasts
• Scenario quality checks test plausibility, distinctiveness, relevance and internal consistency

Participants can formulate credible future visions that guide policy choices and public engagement.

• Normative vision statements define desired public outcomes and non-negotiable values
• Participatory visioning balances expert evidence, citizen perspectives and political legitimacy
• Three Horizons maps declining systems, emerging innovations and future patterns
• Vision criteria distinguish aspirational slogans from testable long-term commitments
• National development priorities translated into measurable future-state conditions
• Intergenerational trade-offs documented between present costs and future benefits

Participants can convert a desired future condition into sequenced policy, institutional and investment actions.

• Backcasting works backward from future conditions to present policy actions
• Milestone pathways sequence legal, institutional, financial and behavioural changes
• Policy mixes combine regulation, spending, taxation, information and public procurement
• Theory of change links interventions, assumptions, outputs, outcomes and impacts
• Path dependency analysis identifies lock-ins, switching costs and transition barriers
• Implementation sequencing aligns reforms with electoral, budgetary and legislative windows

Participants can assess policy performance across scenarios and design adaptation triggers.

• Wind tunneling tests policies against each scenario's operating conditions
• Policy robustness criteria assess effectiveness, equity, affordability and political feasibility
• Real options identify reversible commitments, trigger points and staged investments
• Adaptive pathways define signposts, thresholds and pre-agreed policy responses
• Failure mode analysis identifies unintended consequences, vulnerabilities and compensating controls
• Contingency reserves linked to scenario indicators and fiscal exposure

Participants can embed foresight within public institutions, decision processes and stakeholder engagement.

• Foresight functions positioned within strategy units, planning ministries or delivery agencies
• Portfolio governance assigns ownership across central government and subnational institutions
• Budget integration connects long-term priorities to medium-term expenditure frameworks
• Regulatory impact assessment incorporates future risks, distributional effects and uncertainty
• Public participation plans specify representation, deliberation methods and feedback loops
• Ethical safeguards address transparency, data rights, inclusion and intergenerational justice

Participants can build monitoring arrangements that connect future assumptions to policy review and adjustment.

• Outcome frameworks translate visions into indicators, baselines, targets and review cycles
• Leading indicators distinguish early movement from lagging performance measures
• Strategic dashboards combine quantitative data, qualitative signals and narrative interpretation
• Monitoring protocols assign data sources, refresh frequencies, owners and thresholds
• Evaluation questions test contribution, unintended effects and policy adaptation needs
• Learning reviews convert evidence into revised assumptions, priorities and investments

Participants can prepare an actionable foresight workplan for a live policy challenge.

• Policy challenge charters define sponsor, decision, horizon, scope and constraints
• Foresight workplans schedule scanning, scenario development, engagement and decision gates
• Facilitation plans structure senior-leader dialogue, dissent and documented decisions
• Communication briefs present scenarios without false certainty or technical jargon
• Implementation roadmaps assign accountabilities, resources, milestones and escalation points
• Personal application plans specify first-use opportunity, allies and 90-day actions